The Top Seed: Duke Blue Devils
Cam Boozer, Duke
In four seasons at the helm of his alma mater, Jon Scheyer has already built an impressive resume. He's established himself as arguably the premier recruiter in college basketball today, gone 121-24 total, and won a handful of ACC Titles. Yet, despite getting deeper into the NCAA Tournament each year in the role, he's still searching for that first National Title. This feels like it could be the team to win one with, which would be the first in Durham in over a decade. The roster has it all - the legacy superstar destined to be a top three pick this upcoming summer in the NBA Draft (Cam Boozer), the elite complementary scorers in Isaiah Evans and Caleb Foster, and the gigantic post in Patrick Ngongba II. This Duke team feels like more of a complete team than last year's group, which came agonizingly close to playing for a National Title before a stunning collapse to Houston. If there are two causes for concern Scheyer and company will be out to prove wrong this March? There are significant injuries on the roster, with Foster and Ngongba both missing the ACC Tournament with separate foot problems. There's positive signs Ngongba will be back for their first NCAA Tournament game, but Foster's status is more up in the air. Cayden Boozer performed admirably in Foster's place during the ACC Tournament, but this is a much better team when Foster is on the court. Secondly, despite being the top overall seed, the Blue Devils really didn't receive that favorable of a draw in this region. Consider the coaches they will likely need to overcome if they want to come out of the East: Rick Pitino or Bill Self, Tom Izzo, and Dan Hurley. This is going to be a real test for Scheyer to prove his coaching chops, and that he's truly elevated the program since Coach K's farewell.
I'm Buying Stock: St. John's Red Storm
St. John's entered the 2025-26 campaign with their highest preseason ranking in five decades, which just so happened to be the year the Red Storm played in the Final Four. Given the lofty expectations, it wasn't a major surprise they took some lumps early, losing in the non-conference to the likes of Iowa State, Auburn, Alabama, and Kentucky. Yet, since entering Big East, few teams in the nation have been more impressive than Rick Pitino's club. They took the Big East regular season crown from UConn and then topped it off by winning the conference tournament, with a dominant win over the Huskies being quite the statement to send the team into the NCAA Tournament riding high. Despite that finish is did come as a surprise to see the Red Storm on the 5-line, likely the result of a tough non-conference and the weakest Big East we've seen in years. You better believe Pitino is going to be using that as an extra bit of motivation, bad news for whoever they meet up with in this East Region. This is the type of team you absolutely don't want to see in March already. They have star power, a clear identity, and will play a full 40 minutes of physical, punishing basketball. Even if you find a way to beat them, they're such a pain, they leave you so battered and bruised you likely lose the next. I love the draw here to get to the Sweet 16, and believe they're the greatest test to Duke inside the region. If that game does indeed happen, that may as well be the regional final, determining who comes out of the East.
Welcome to the Dance: Cal Baptist Lancers
Every year, we tend to see a program or two playing in their first Big Dance. In the East Region, it's the 13th-seeded Cal Baptist Lancers who will get the opportunity to show what they can do on the sport's biggest stage. The program was a Division II power for years, and have steadily risen up the ranks since making the jump to Division I prior to the 2018-19 season. After winning the WAC Tournament in the conference's final season, the Lancers have the chance for a Cinderella opportunity against one of the most well-known brands in college basketball: the Kansas Jayhawks. Finding a way to slow down Darryn Peterson will be their top priority, but Cal Baptist has a star guard of their own in Dominique Daniels Jr., who is averaging 23.2 PPG on the season. Daniels has proven he can take over games at multiple points this winter, going for scoring outbursts of 47, 41, and 34 - all games the Lancers won. March is all about the storylines, and a first-time NCAA Tournament participant with an explosive lead guard? This could be the team that creates the chaos in an East Region filled to the brim with blue bloods.
Exercise Caution: Louisville Cardinals
Pat Kelsey has done a superb job getting Louisville back to respectability after the disastrous Kenny Payne era, with 50 regular seasons wins over his first two seasons. Yet, it feels like to me this Cardinals team underachieved a bit after entering the season ranked No. 11 in the AP poll. They beat who they were supposed to, without a particularly bad loss on their resume, but they also didn't bolster their case with a whole lot of impressive wins. Beating SMU and Miami down the stretch likely helped them finish on the 6-seed line, but are hardly the type of best wins I look for when picking a team to make an NCAA Tournament run. It doesn't help that they earned perhaps the toughest draw out of all the six seeds, with American Champion South Florida their first matchup. The Bulls can run and score at a high level, and the Cardinal defense has struggled all season long. Getting back Mikel Brown Jr. for the NCAA Tournament would at least make me feel better, but the star freshman has an uncertain status for the Big Dance, not having played since late February. Kelsey himself has some of his own March demons to excise, as he's still searching for his first NCAA Tournament win in what is now his sixth trip. To be fair, several of those appearances were at Winthrop and Charleston and they were clear underdogs. But this team just doesn't strike me as one that's going to be long for this year's festivities. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if Kelsey has to wait until next season entirely to secure that elusive first Tournament victory.
Not a Cinderella This Year: Furman Paladins
The Furman Paladins gave us one of the most memorable moments in recent March Madness victory with their thrilling, buzzer-beating win over Virginia as a 13-seed in 2023. Now, they're back and ready to create more madness after a two-season hiatus. Yet, Cinderella lovers beware - this is far from the same Furman team that won back in 2023. This year's team won when it mattered most, but they still entered the postseason as the six seed in a Southern Conference that was not particularly impressive this winter. And when you compare them to the other potential Cinderella stories in this field, they already lost to several of them - High Point, Troy, and Northern Iowa. The 2023 team had legit star power, including J.P. Pegues and Marcus Foster, both of whom jumped up a level to power conference ball after transferring out of Furman. Aside from guard Alex Wilkins, who leads the Paladins in scoring and assists, this group just doesn't have that level of talent. All said, it's great to see this program back in the Big Dance after going on a fun conference tournament run, but it should be a short-lived trip. UConn and Dan Hurley will be ready for them in the first round, a game that should have a heavy Huskies fan contingent given it's Philadelphia locale.
Picking the East
First Round
1 Duke Blue Devils over 16 Siena Saints -- Siena head coach Gerry McNamara should be a popular name in the coaching carousel this offseason, perhaps at his alma mater Syracuse. But he doesn't have enough magic to will the Saints to a stunner over Duke in this one.
8 Ohio State Buckeyes over 9 TCU Horned Frogs -- Jake Diebler's Buckeyes finished the season strong, winning four straight before coming up short against Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. If Bruce Thornton can get enough help from this Buckeye supporting cast, I like them to move on to the second round.
5 St. John's Red Storm over 12 Northern Iowa Panthers -- This is the first trip to the NCAA Tournament for Northern Iowa since they made the second round in 2016 - and lost a heartbreaker to Texas A&M. Unfortunately I think this trip will be even shorter for Ben Jacobson and the Panthers.
4 Kansas Jayhawks over 13 Cal Baptist Lancers -- It's been tough to get a read on Kansas all season. With Darryn Peterson, they can play with anyone in the country, but how focused is the freshman phenom heading into the NCAA Tournament? Either way, they outlast the upset-minded Lancers in the first round.
11 South Florida Bulls over 6 Louisville Cardinals -- This is a fun Bulls team, and one that scores in a hurry. They average nearly 88 points per contest, with four different guards averaging in double-digits on the season. That's a horrendous matchup for a Louisville team that has had defensive issues much of the season.
3 Michigan State Spartans over 14 North Dakota State Bison -- This is far from Tom Izzo's best team in East Lansing, but they play as hard as any team he's coached in his long tenure with the Spartans. I don't see them getting upset in the first round.
7 UCLA Bruins over 10 UCF Knights -- UCF is an under-the-radar team heading into the NCAA Tournament, as they've beaten Kansas, a fully healthy Texas Tech, and BYU on the season. But I'm not sure they have the offense to overcome UCLA's suffocating defense.
2 UConn Huskies over 15 Furman Paladins -- Dan Hurley always has his teams playing the best at the right time, and coming up short to St. John's inside the Big East should be the extra motivation they need.
Second Round
1 Duke Blue Devils over 8 Ohio State Buckeyes -- Duke potentially being without Caleb Foster still could hurt them against a team with such a capable backcourt like Ohio State, but Cam Boozer is quite the deciding factor.
5 St. John's Red Storm over 4 Kansas Jayhawks -- This has the makings of a rock fight between two elite coaches and two teams that have proven themselves on the defensive end all season. St. John's just has a little bit more offensive punch and balance than this year's Jayhawks.
3 Michigan State Spartans over 11 South Florida Bulls -- South Florida has never beaten Michigan State in their previous three games in program history against the Spartans. This is not your typical USF team, but I feel as though the result ultimately remains the same.
2 UConn Huskies over 7 UCLA Bruins -- There's real upset potential here, given what UCLA can be when they're playing well. However, not having Donovan Dent is a killer for a Bruins team that will need all the help they can get against this UConn offense.
Sweet 16
1 Duke Blue Devils over 5 St. John's Red Storm -- Not sure there's a potential matchup this entire NCAA Tournament that excites me more than this one. The old Big East, represented by Rick Pitino, against the ACC power and prodigy young head coach. Duke's edge in talent may end up being just enough, but this has all the makings off a March classic.
2 UConn Huskies over 3 Michigan State Spartans -- It does feel like UConn is being a bit overlooked when compared to most of the other National Title contenders in this year's field. We know what Hurley and the Huskies can do in March, and they're a better team on a neutral court.
Elite Eight
1 Duke Blue Devils over 2 UConn Huskies -- What a way to round out the East Region, as two of the sport's blue bloods collide. The injury concerns for the Blue Devils are certainly valid, but assuming Ngongba and potentially even Foster are back by this point in the NCAA Tournament, they come out victorious.
East Region Champion: 1 Duke Blue Devils
Surprise, surprise, I'm taking the top overall seed to make the Final Four. This Duke team has separated themselves from the rest of the pack and after coming up short last season, this team feels like one that can finish the job. Jon Scheyer earns his second Final Four berth, with his sights set on even greater prizes.
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