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| Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt |
Upset: 2-3
Superdogs: 3-1
Locks: 3-3
(#3) Miami Hurricanes @ (#18) Florida State Seminoles
Line: Miami -4.5
O/U: 53.5
Miami - Florida State has long been one of the fiercest rivalries in college football, but rarely has it had such implications in recent times. Despite a loss to Virginia last week, Florida State is hoping to continue their turnaround from last season's 2-10 mark and challenge for an ACC Title. Miami may have even loftier goals - such as a National Title. A loss here will not necessarily run either of their chances, but victory would go a long way in furthering their ambitions as we hit the month of October.
It's been all about the rushing attack for Florida State early on in the season, as Gus Malzahn has engineered the nation's second best rushing offense to this point in the fall. The Seminoles are currently averaging over 336 yards per game on the ground, thanks to dual threat QB Tommy Castellanos and a deep backfield that includes Gavin Sawchuk, Ousmane Kromah, and Samuel Singleton Jr. It's so effective because it doesn't rely on just one piece - Malzahn is a magician at scheming up complex packages that get his guys into space. There's also the chance the Seminoles could be getting an important piece back to this backfield, as Roydell Williams has a chance to return this week after missing their last three games. He went down with injury in the opener against Alabama, but is the most experienced rusher on this roster. This Florida State rushing attack does set up an interesting battle with this Miami Hurricane defense. With coordinator Corey Hetherman, this side of the ball for Miami may be among the most improved units in the entire country. The front seven in particular sets the tone, with Rueben Bain Jr. the alpha in the room. Bain shouldn't be expected to contribute too much as a run defender, but his constant pressure as an edge rusher has given this Hurricane defense a real edge to it all season long. If the Florida State offensive line isn't up for the challenge and Miami can control the line as they have so far this season, you can imagine this team building an early lead and playing ball control the remainder of the game. We are going to need to see Castellanos throw the ball, which he hasn't necessarily needed to for much of the early season. This Miami defense is a whole different challenge than Alabama was - they're healthier, better coached, and relentless. This is going to need to be a vintage Gus coaching performance if Florida State is to put points on the board.
For the Miami offense, it's been all about balance over the course of the first five games of their season. Quarterback Carson Beck may not be Cam Ward, but he hasn't needed to be, instead providing the Hurricanes a competent, reliable signal-caller to run the show. He's benefitted from some really nice talent around him, with Mark Fletcher Jr. rumbling on the ground, while true freshman sensation Malachi Toney and transfer C.J. Daniels make things happen on the perimeter. What really sets Miami apart, however, is the offensive line. This is a peak Mario Cristobal offensive line, one loaded with future NFL talent, depth, and overwhelming ferocity. They have looked the part so far this fall, even against tough competition like Notre Dame and Florida, so they should not be surprised by this Florida State front. And, it's hard to know how good the Seminole defense really is, anyways. They played great football against Alabama and against mediocre competition over the next few weeks, but then allowed 440 yards and 46 points to Virginia last Friday. The Hurricanes aren't as explosive as an offense as the one on the other sideline, but I'm not sure they need to be. As long as Beck continues to take care of the ball and make the right decisions, this can be a very methodical and productive group. Their ability to control the trenches puts them at an immediate advantage over just about everyone on their schedule.
Heading into Doak Campbell Stadium will of course be a significant challenge for this Miami team, but one they should be prepared for. This team has the pieces to take the Seminole crowd out of the game early on, and then play a ball control game the rest of the way with the way they control the lines of scrimmage. As long as Cristobal doesn't make any wacky late-game decisions, an unfortunate tendency of his, I like Miami's chances to keep their perfect record intact.
The Pick: Miami, 27 Florida State, 20
(#16) Vanderbilt Commodores @ (#10) Alabama Crimson Tide