College Football Coaching Carousel 2025 Predictions

G.J. Kinne, Texas State

Less than one month into the 2025 college football season, the coaching carousel has begun spinning. A total of four programs have already fired their coaches, with UCLA and Virginia Tech first to make the move after 0-3 starts. With several other potential big-name gigs set to open, we could see a potentially chaotic carousel this fall and winter. Who do I see taking over at each current vacancy or potential opening? It's time for some speculation.

Current Openings

Arkansas Razorbacks

(Fired Sam Pittman)

Few coaches in college football entered this fall under as much pressure as Sam Pittman. After a 4-8 record in 2023 originally put his job in jeopardy, a resurgent 2024 at 7-6 earned him another year. But ultimately, three straight losses ended his time as Arkansas head coach after five-plus seasons in charge. Pittman was a bit of an unconventional hire, but he did return the program to respectability after the disastrous two-year run of his predecessor, Chad Morris. In fact, his nine-win campaign in 2022 was just the second time in a decade the Razorbacks had reached or surpassed the eight-win plateau. However, it just felt like the program had reached its peak under his leadership, and a new direction was necessary. He concludes his Arkansas tenure with a 32-34 overall record and 14-29 mark in the SEC.

Hired: Rhett Lashlee, SMU Head Coach

Any SEC job that opens is going to be an attractive one, but I am curious to see how Arkansas is perceived compared to others on the market. The program has resources, but they've struggled mightily over the last decade-and-a-half, since the first Bobby Petrino tenure (who is now their interim head coach). It's also a school that is committed to building winners in basketball and baseball, so it is fair to wonder how serious they are in building a winner on the football field.

With all that being said, it does feel like a job a name like Rhett Lashlee, current SMU head coach, would be interested in. Sure, SMU is now a power conference job and has plenty of money to throw around, but the fate of the ACC is an uncertain one. Moving into the SEC would be attractive alone, but Lashlee is also an Arkansas native and alum of the university. It could be a natural stepping stone for a coach who progressed up the career ladder fairly quickly and has now proven himself as a head coach. Lashlee has seen Arkansas as a winner - he was a grad assistant on the 2006 team that went 10-4 and went to the SEC Championship Game. The opportunity to return to his roots and take over this program has to be a very difficult one to pass up.

Others to Watch: Bobby Petrino (interim HC); Jon Sumrall (Tulane HC); Ryan Silverfield (Memphis HC); Gus Malzahn (Florida State OC); Barry Odom (Purdue HC); Tyson Helton (Western Kentucky HC); Barry Lunney Jr. (Illinois OC)

Oklahoma State Cowboys

(Fired Mike Gundy)

College Football Picks 2025: Week Five

Ty Simpson, Alabama

Current Picks Record: 23-13

Upset: 2-2

Superdogs: 3-1

Locks: 1-3

(#6) Oregon Ducks @ (#3) Penn State Nittany Lions

Line: Penn State -3.5

O/U: 51.5

We learned a lot about the Big Ten last weekend, when Michigan escaped with a win over Nebraska and Indiana took it to Illinois. Yet, both those games pale in comparison to the matchup in primetime Saturday night. Two undefeated teams, Penn State and Oregon, square off under the lights in Happy Valley in what could be a Big Ten Championship Game preview. It feels like the entire month for both these teams has been building to this game, and we should have a good one to highlight Week Five.

Both teams have ran through a buttery soft non-conference slate to this point, which is especially true of Penn State. The Nittany Lions have beaten Nevada, FIU, and Villanova en route to their 3-0 start, all comfortable victories. It's hard to take anything significant from any of those wins - the Nittany Lions rolled without much issue, but they likely held a lot back on both sides of the ball knowing Oregon was later in the month. Quarterback Drew Allar has been fine, but nothing particularly special. The thing is, he hasn't needed to be, as Penn State has held a clear advantage in talent against every time they've faced, and been able to ride the two-headed backfield of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to success. That will obviously not be the case against the Ducks. This is a front seven with a bunch of future NFL guys, built in the mold of the SEC defenses we used to see back in the late 2000s and early 2010s. This is going to be an absolute war at the line of scrimmage, and it may come down to whether Allar can make the big throws. In fact, that seems to be a consistent theme of Allar's career up to this point. He's won a lot of games, put up impressive numbers, and is widely considered among the best in the nation. But, it feels like he hasn't had a true breakout game on the big stage against an elite defense. Oregon would provide that moment, but he does need help from his receivers out wide. Trebor Pena has been a helpful addition but will need to elevate his play, as will Kyron Hudson. I am curious if Penn State has more tricks up their sleeve than just those two. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is a creative guy, and used tight end Tyler Warren in a bunch of unique ways last fall. Do we see Penn State break out something new we haven't seen yet this fall? This would certainly be the game to do it in.

It's been smooth sailing for Oregon to this point, too, and they do have a Big Ten to their credit already after taking down Northwestern on the road. Quarterback Dante Moore has been absolutely dealing up to this point in the year and has garnered early Heisman attention. No Evan Stewart has been no problem, with Dakorien Moore stealing the show out wide, but there are an abundance of options here. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq is a matchup nightmare, and Malik Benson and Gary Bryant Jr. are proven veterans providing plenty of spark of their own. The ground game has been interesting - Makhi Hughes was expected to be the alpha after coming over after a huge year at Tulane, but he's been quiet early. Instead, it's been Jayden Limar, Noah Whittington, and Dierre Hill Jr. getting the bulk of action so far. You do wonder if that has more to do with the fact most of the early action for Oregon so far has been in blowouts, or if that's how this backfield is going to shape out the rest of the season. Has Hughes also been not 100 percent? Either way, the Ducks are all operating behind an elite offensive line, giving playcaller Will Stein all the toys he needs to engineer some real magic on this side of the ball. Yet, this is going to be a fascinating chess match between Stein and his opponent on the other side, Penn State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Knowles is one of the truly elite defensive minds in the game today, and he completely flummoxed Oregon in last year's Rose Bowl while at Ohio State. With the Nittany Lions, he has a defense that may not have the star power of last year's Buckeyes, but has ample experience. They're going to throw a lot at Moore and company, a quarterback who really has not played in this type of environment in primetime before.

I feel like a broken record throughout the month of September, but it's true - we simply don't know that much about either of these teams just yet. Sure, they've beaten up on inferior teams and looked pretty dang impressive while doing so. But, this type of game, in Happy Valley with so much talent and future NFL players on the field? It's completely different. Penn State hasn't quite looked as crisp as Oregon early, but they do get the home crowd behind them and the Knowles factor is a decisive one. You know he's been preparing for months for this exact game, eager to deploy the right scheme to slow down Moore and the Ducks. I think the Nittany Lions turn this one into a bit of a slow-paced, almost ugly type of football game and lean on their power-run game the other way to lead them to victory.

The Pick: Penn State, 24 Oregon, 21

(#17) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#5) Georgia Bulldogs

College Football Picks 2025: Week Four

Devon Dampier, Utah

 Current Picks Record: 16-11

Upset: 2-1

Superdogs: 2-1

Locks: 0-3

(#9) Illinois Fighting Illini @ (#19) Indiana Hoosiers

Line: Indiana -6.5

O/U: 52.5

So far, the top Big Ten teams have rolled through their non-conference schedule, but we'll learn a lot about the league this weekend. Not only does Michigan square off with Nebraska in Lincoln, but the Illinois Fighting Illini head to Bloomington to match up with the Indiana Hoosiers. Both teams have legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations, and a win here could give their resume a nice boost early on in mid-September.

It's been smooth sailing en route to a 3-0 start for the Illini, riding a balanced offense and stingy defense. Luke Altmyer has looked in complete control, throwing for eight touchdowns without an interception to this point in the year, the backfield has three legitimate weapons, and the receiver corps has recovered well from an offseason that saw them lose Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin. Yet, this will almost certainly be the toughest defense they've seen all season long, and in a hostile environment. Mikail Kamara gets most of the attention for the Hoosiers up front, but this is a group with playmakers at all three levels. They may not necessarily be the most talented, but Indiana prepares incredibly well on this side of the ball and they play hard for Curt Cignetti. Illinois is going to have to use all the tools in their arsenal to move the ball consistently, and that may include taking more shots down the field than what we've seen over the first three weeks. Yet, the win over Duke earlier in the year has to show the playbook for what they'll look to do against Indiana, especially when you consider this is their only other power conference game to this point. The Illini started fairly slow, establishing the run and playing a more conservative style of offense. But they made the right adjustments at halftime, began throwing the ball down the field, and held on to the ball to dominate time of possession. While not necessarily easy, if the Illini can jump out to a lead early, this is the type of balanced offensive approach that can simply sit on leads and take the entire game away from their opponent.

The new-look Hoosier offense hasn't had much difficulties themselves, averaging 52 points over the course of their first three games of the fall. Now, to be fair, the opponents so far? Indiana State, Old Dominion, and Kennesaw State - not exactly elite competition. But it still has to be encouraging for this team to look so crisp early on in the season when you consider they are breaking in a new QB, Fernando Mendoza, and new lead back in Roman Hemby. Mendoza to be is the most interesting player to watch in this game. You saw the potential with him when he was at Cal, and there's a reason he's caught the eye of NFL scouts with his 6'5" frame. With that being said, consistency has been an issue for Mendoza, and he simply has not played in a lot of important games over the course of his college career. Could the moment be too much for him? Illinois has long been a defense that is able to switch up their looks to confuse opposing quarterbacks, and the secondary has looked good so far this season. It's going to be a very interesting battle here. Fortunately, Mendoza does have the benefit of throwing to a very strong receiver corps, one that includes a trio of veterans in Omar Cooper, Elijah Sarratt, and E.J. Williams. Indiana feels like the more explosive team, at least on paper, but is there an adjustment period we should expect considering the increase in competition? There's a lot of variables to consider here and so early on in the season, we don't have a very accurate picture of either one of these teams.

This is a true coin flip type pick for me. Indiana feels like the team with the higher ceiling given the talent on both sides of the ball and what the personnel is capable of. But, how can we accurately view a team like this that has played such meager competition? I have a better idea of who the Illini are, but do they have the vertical passing game and weapons to overcome a tough opponent on the road? In a true 50-50, I tend to lean towards the home team, as boring as it is. The Hoosiers feel like they should be the better team, too, if things come together, but it's bound to be a close one all the same.

The Pick: Indiana, 27 Illinois, 24

(#17) Texas Tech Red Raiders @ (#17) Utah Utes

Line: Utah -3.5

O/U: 56.5

The Big 12 race feels as wide open as ever before as we head into Week Four. Iowa State got the big (or so it seemed at the time) win over Kansas State to begin the year, but they've underwhelmed in recent weeks. Arizona State has lost. Kansas State is a mess. That opens the door for one of these two teams set to collide this weekend to position themselves as an early favorite, as Texas Tech travels to altitude to face off with Utah.

Few teams in all of college football spent as much this past offseason to build a winning roster as Texas Tech, and it has paid off so far en route to a 3-0 start. Yet, none of their wins have been overly impressive to this point - Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State. Going into Salt Lake City and coming away victorious is a whole different challenge, one that will require a fully healthy and ready to go Behren Morton at quarterback. The veteran is one of the best in the Big 12 when healthy, but injuries have been an unfortunate theme of his career. He had shoulder surgery last December and seemed ready to go for this fall, but has been banged up early, albeit not missing any significant time. The pressure is on him as the Red Raiders prepare for this contest. Morton has had an impressive career and played a lot of football here, but has never quite been able to show up in the biggest moments and get this program over the edge. Against an always-stout Ute defense, if he can come in and make some huge throws, it could make all the difference for the Red Raiders. Morton is also extra important considering this ground game seems to still be getting rolling as it moves forward without star Tahj Brooks. It's been a rotation early on, as it's likely to be this fall unless somebody overwhelms the competition, with Adam Hill leading the charge so far. Statistically, they've been good, but Utah's defensive front is a significant challenge. Few teams in the country fill gaps and are as fundamentally sound as the Utes, who always seem to have several linebackers who can take over games on the defensive end. This year, it's Lander Barton, a former blue chip recruit who has lived up to the hype for the Utes. I am very curious to see how Tech responds to the physicality they're going to face here. This has long been a program that wants to spread it all out and play on the perimeter, but the personnel has changed in a big way. Are they ready to go on the road and win a grinding, physical game against a team of Utah's caliber? They have the talent to do so, but this has not been the type of game the Red Raiders have succeeded in historically.

The Utes haven't exactly been playing elite competition themselves as they've begun 3-0. They destroyed former Pac-12 foe UCLA to begin the year and then cruised past Cal Poly and Wyoming. The defense has been unsurprisingly terrific, but it has been a fascinating watch to see the offense evolve this fall. Quarterback Devon Dampier is a much different player than we've come to expect from Kyle Whittingham QBs. He's a true dual threat and a playmaker who is going to take risks with the ball, whether with his legs or his arm. So far, it hasn't harmed the Utes, as Dampier hasn't turned the ball over, and has ran all over opposing defenses. This game against the Red Raiders is a bit different - their front seven was one of the key areas they spent big on over the offseason, and the secondary has been a pleasant surprise. Dampier is going to want to take things over, but his first interception of the season could be the type of thing that swings the tide in a competitive game like this. The Utes do feature a quality running game beyond just Dampier and out wide, Ryan Davis and tight end Dallen Bentley give them enough to overcome opposing defenses. With all that being said, where I see the game being decided is in the trenches, specifically this matchup between Utah's O-Line and Tech's defensive front. Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu are likely future NFL Draftees for the Utes, and their ability to control the line of scrimmage has been central to Utah's identity. The Red Raiders will get after opposing quarterbacks, especially end David Bailey, but I'm not sure how good their rush defense is just yet. I think the Utes are just fine turning this into a slow, churning game and riding their defense and home atmosphere to victory. It's a formula that has been awfully successful for Whittingham in his coaching career.

Yet another game that's difficult to predict so early in the year, because we just don't know a ton about either of these teams. With that being said, Utah has always had a clear identity and even with Dampier under center, they are going to play a similar brand of football. They know how to win low-scoring games and the atmosphere in Salt Lake City is unmatched, even so early on in the morning. Until we see it from Texas Tech in a big game, I like the Utes in this game.

The Pick: Utah, 21 Texas Tech, 18

Other Picks

(#22) Auburn Tigers @ (#11) Oklahoma Sooners -- An opportunity for a Jackson Arnold revenge game, as the former Sooner and current Tiger heads back to Norman. He's looked good running the ball early, but I'm not sold on this Auburn passing attack. I'm not sold on their defense, for that matter, a worrying combination against a team like Oklahoma.

The Pick: Oklahoma, 42 Auburn, 28

Florida Gators @ (#4) Miami Hurricanes -- As frustrating as last week was for Florida, they did stick around deep into the second half against the nation's third best team - with five turnovers from D.J. Lagway. They have a chance to make this a game. But, the Hurricanes are playing just too well at the moment.

The Pick: Miami, 34 Florida, 24

(#21) Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers -- May be one of the biggest games in recent memory for the 'Huskers, an opportunity for them to start 4-0 and snag a huge Big Ten victory. Yet, they've struggled to stop the run against quality competition - Cincinnati ran for nearly 7 yards per carry against them. Justice Haynes and the Wolverines pound the rock to victory.

The Pick: Michigan, 20 Nebraska, 14

Purdue Boilermakers @ (#24) Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- Rivalry games can always get a bit weird, and Purdue looks much improved in Year One of Barry Odom. Still, I'm not sure they have the firepower necessary to go into South Bend and drop the Irish to 0-3.

The Pick: Notre Dame, 35 Purdue, 13

Upset: Tulane Green Wave @ (#13) Ole Miss Rebels -- Tulane may not be at the talent level of an Ole Miss, but this is the type of well-coached, physical team the Rebels have struggled with. And, who is starting at QB for the Rebels? Trinidad Chambliss looked like an upgrade over Austin Simmons, but Simmons is expected to be back.

The Pick: Tulane, 31 Ole Miss, 28

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Temple Owls (+24.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -- Fresh off an emotional, huge victory. Haynes King took a beating. The defense had to battle for all four quarters. I still like the Yellow Jackets to win comfortably here, but the Owls may keep it interesting enough to cover.

The Pick: Georgia Tech, 28 Temple, 10

Lock of the Week: UNLV Rebels (-2) @ Miami (Ohio) Redhawks -- UAB looked ready to reverse my winless locks start to the year - and then allowed a late Akron cover. Now I turn to UNLV, who is 3-0 and should be able to overcome a Miami (Ohio) team with a struggling offense.

The Pick: UNLV, 27 Miami (Ohio), 14

College Football Picks 2025: Week Three

Nate Frazier, Georgia

Current Picks Record: 9-9

Upset: 1-1

Superdogs: 1-1

Locks: 0-2

(#6) Georgia Bulldogs @ (#15) Tennessee Volunteers

Line: Georgia -3.5

O/U: 49.5

The first major SEC game of the fall sets the stage for Week Three, as Georgia travels to Knoxville to take on the 15th-ranked Tennessee Volunteers. Both teams stand at 2-0, but neither have made much of an impression on the young season just yet, beating up on inferior foes. This game will tell us which may be ready to make a run at an SEC Title, as both look for an early resume-booster for their College Football Playoff hopes.

It hasn't felt like Georgia has had to pull out anything from their playbook over the season's first two weeks, as they've cruised past Marshall and Austin Peay. Yet, this game will tell us a lot about what we can expect from an offense that is going to be relying on some new faces this fall. Quarterback Gunner Stockton is the most notable change in his first full season as starter, but it will also be interesting to monitor who emerges as the top option out wide. Tailback Nate Frazier is one player I've had pegged as a breakout candidate, and he's been effective over the first two games. But, is he truly ready to become the bell cow back, and a true difference-maker for this offense? On the perimeter, is USC transfer Zachariah Branch ready to put it completely together over the course of an entire season? Or, is this going to be another year where the Bulldogs lean heavily on their tight ends in the passing game? This offense is loaded with talent, but there are questions here, too. Perhaps my greatest question lies along the offensive line, which has pummeled opponents early, but faces a serious test in Tennessee. Every defensive coordinator wants to run an aggressive defense, but Tim Banks takes it to another level for the Volunteers. He'll take a lot of risks, and it's often boom-or-bust on this side of the ball for the Vols. When it works, this can be one of the stingiest defenses in the country, as it was for much of last season, but it can also be prone to allowing the big play. How Georgia reacts will be very interesting - this hasn't been an offense that has needed to be explosive, but they have their fair share of big play threats. Whether they're able to take their shots and potentially break open the game down the field may make all the difference in what is sure to be a fierce, competitive contest.

For all the drama that unfolded around Tennessee's quarterback situation this spring, the Vols have to be pretty satisfied with Joey Aguilar through the first couple games. Aguilar, who was at Appalachian State before a brief transfer to UCLA, where he was essentially swapped for Nico Iamaleava, has thrown for 535 yards and five touchdowns over the first two weeks. Aguilar is not the most talented quarterback Josh Heupel has ever coached, but he's looked in complete command and what stands out in particular is how well he takes care of the football. He hasn't thrown an interception on the season yet, and hasn't been sacked, either, a testament to this Tennessee offensive line. Needless to say, he's in store for his greatest challenge yet against a Georgia defense stock full of its usual NFL talent. There isn't quite the one elite pass rusher up front that we've come to know here from the Bulldogs with guys like Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter, but the back seven has all the pieces to be elite. Raylen Wilson and C.J. Allen are going to swarm the Tennessee ground game, and Aguilar is going to have to make more difficult throws in tight windows than what he has done over the first couple weeks. Heupel is going to scheme players open, but this Tennessee offense doesn't seem to have the skill position players they've had in the past, at least not on paper, and Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs have had their numbers in recent years. Don't be surprised if this is the type of thing that turns into a bit of a low-scoring, grinding type of game, one that seems to favor the 'Dawgs in that scenario.

It's difficult to feel particularly strong about either one of these teams. They've both impressed during the early portion of the season, but we still don't know much about either, and it feels like Georgia in particular has held back of their playbook to begin the year. Going into Knoxville is no easy feat, especially against a Volunteer team that is playing well and playing confident, but the Bulldogs feel like they're going to bring out something special int his game, and Smart's track record against UT speaks for itself.

The Pick: Georgia, 24 Tennessee, 17

(#16) Texas A&M Aggies @ (#8) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

College Football Picks 2025: Week Two

 Bryce Underwood, Michigan

Current Picks Record: 4-5

Upsets: 0-1

Superdogs: 1-0

Locks: 0-1

Iowa Hawkeyes @ (#16) Iowa State Cyclones

Line: Iowa State -3.5

O/U: 41.5

The Cy-Hawk rivalry is already one of the fiercest in all of college football, but the stakes have been raised in recent years. Both teams have legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations entering this game, particularly Iowa State, and a quality non-conference victory could go a long way in furthering those ambitions. That doesn't mean this is likely to be an aesthetically pleasing game - expect a low-scoring slugfest as these two collide in Ames.

Iowa State had quite the encore to their season-opening win over Kansas State in Dublin, as they came back home and demolished South Dakota, 55-7. After playing in less than ideal conditions across the pond, Rocco Becht looked in complete command, throwing just one incompletion and finishing with three touchdown passes. That's an encouraging sign for the Cyclones, even if it was against an FCS opponent. The belief heading into the year was this was likely to be a ground-and-pound team that was going to need to lean on their ground game, with top receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel now in the NFL. But Becht has looked the part early, even as Iowa State still looks for more production from their receiver corps. That should also be important against this Iowa defense in particular, one that always is tough to move at the line of scrimmage. Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III are going to get more carries than they did against South Dakota, as the Cyclones are still going to aim to establish the run. But if Becht can make some big throws early and open things up vertically, this Hawkeye defense becomes much less imposing. With that being said, turnovers are always a concern when you're playing Iowa. Perhaps no team in the nation consistently forces as many and capitalizes on them as the Hawkeyes. If they can pick off a pass or two, with this game almost sure to be a tight one, the entire dynamic of the game could swing.

As compared to Iowa State, the energy around the Iowa offense entering this matchup isn't super encouraging. South Dakota State transfer Mark Gronowski received plenty of hype over the offseason after transferring in to the program, but his first start was an ugly one. Gronkowski went just 8-15, for 44 yards, and a touchdown in a comfortable win over Albany. But, it wasn't just the stats that were bad, but the fact he missed several wide open receivers and made some truly horrendous throws for a veteran quarterback. Now, you could make the argument the Hawkeyes may have been holding some things back to not show their hand in anticipation of this game against the Cyclones, but it's hard to imagine them having any shot in this game unless we see sweeping changes. Sure, the Hawkeye running game will still be an effective fuel, with Xavier Williams and Terrell Washington Jr. both showing out last week. However, this is the same offense that had Kaleb Johnson last season and despite his heroics, they collapsed in this game in defeat during the second half. There has to be some semblance of balance and at least some reason for Iowa State to not stack the box with eight defenders, even if it's just a few big throws from Gronowski. That will rely on Iowa receivers also getting open, which is where Jacob Gill and tight end Addison Ostrenga will have to prove themselves after they also had quiet season openers.

Every single year, this matchup always feels like a coin flip to me. I picked the Hawkeyes last year and they were in control to win the game for most of the sixty minutes, before falling apart late. I do believe the Cyclones are the better team, but I am wary about the long-term effects of the Dublin travel without rest. This isn't an FCS team they're facing, but a Hawkeye team that will still be tough and physical. I think the Hawkeyes do just enough to push them around, and the offense somehow finds enough of a spark to come out victorious in a low-scoring affair.

The Pick: Iowa, 17 Iowa State, 13

(#15) Michigan Wolverines @ (#18) Oklahoma Sooners

Line: Oklahoma -5.5

O/U: 44.5

Michigan and Oklahoma were among the most disappointing teams in the entire country last fall, but both have big dreams of redemption in 2025. And after both cruised to victory in their respective openers, they are on the right track to doing just that. Yet, this matchup will tell us a lot more about both - can Oklahoma go from sub-.500 to a potential SEC Title contender? Is Michigan the real deal with Bryce Underwood under center? With this being the primetime game, the spotlight will be focused in on Norman, Oklahoma come Saturday night.

The Wolverine offense looked much different with Underwood in charge in Week One. He went 21-31 for 251 yards and a touchdown against New Mexico in the opener, but it went beyond the stat sheet - his mere presence and command gave this entire offense a different feel. Teams will have to be forced to at least respect the pass, and Underwood's legs, which certainly was not the case for the Wolverines last fall. Now, there are sure to be some mistakes, as any true freshman will make, and going into Norman is not an easy task for a second career start. But, Underwood feels like he has the right head on his shoulders, and should be ready, even against a Brent Venables-coached defense that is sure to throw out some interesting wrinkles. Michigan is still going to feature a power-run game, and Justice Haynes got off to quite the start, running for 159 yards and three touchdowns in the opener. That performance was encouraging for several reasons - Haynes is going to continue to be the feature guy, but the offensive line also looked the part after a frustrating 2024. Of course, they are going to face better athletes on their schedule than New Mexico, but they have an opportunity to own the line of scrimmage against the Sooners.

The Sooners also overhauled their offense after the disappointing 2024 campaign, bringing in a host of transfers to fill key spots. That includes Washington State transfer John Mateer at quarterback, who threw for 392 yards in the opener, albeit against Illinois State. Even against an FCS foe, that type of showing is exactly what Oklahoma is hoping for in 2025, a vertical passing game that is aggressive throughout the four quarters. It opens up the ground game, with Cal transfer Jaydn Ott leading the way, assuming he's good to go after missing time in camp and receiving just one carry in the opener. In fact, the entire running back situation is one to monitor for the Sooners, given Michigan's defensive style to play for field position. With Ott barely playing, Tory Blaylock finished as the leading rusher in the opener, but ended up leaving the game early with a shoulder injury. His status for Saturday is completely up in the air. Then there's Taylor Tatum, who had his moments last year, but completely missed the opener. With that part of their offense so unsettled, the pressure is on Mateer, who has to go up against a Michigan secondary that loses several key pieces from last season, but is still awfully good. Speaking of the Wolverine defense, the loss of linebacker Jaishawn Barham, who will miss the first half of this game after a targeting call is significant. He's the most impactful defender in this front seven, at least until others emerge, and so early in the season when the margins can be so thin, that could make a major difference.

Going into Norman and winning is of course no easy task, but I like Michigan's chances here. Even if Underwood has some freshman moments, I think this is the more physical team, and one that should be able to hold the lines of scrimmage. If they can slow down Mateer enough, which feels likely, I like their chances to pull off what is technically an upset, even though they sit higher in the polls than the Sooners.

The Pick: Michigan, 28 Oklahoma, 21

Other Picks

Baylor Bears @ (#17) SMU Mustangs -- I've been keeping an eye on this one as an upset opportunity, but I was not impressed with the Baylor defense in their opener. Rhett Lashlee is going to have something special drawn up, and I fear it will be too much for the Bears.

The Pick: SMU, 42 Baylor, 28

Kansas Jayhawks @ Missouri Tigers -- A classic rivalry game between two opponents who know each other very well. Both have looked good early, but I like Missouri's chances to figure out the right defensive gameplan to slow down Jalon Daniels and company.

The Pick: Missouri, 31 Kansas, 21

(#11) Illinois Fighting Illini @ Duke Blue Devils -- Another potential upset alert here, as Duke is a tough opponent and will be playing at home. Yet, the Illini looked in control in their opener, and a veteran QB like Luke Altmyer may just be enough to make all the difference.

The Pick: Illinois, 27 Duke, 24

South Florida Bulls @ (#13) Florida Gators -- South Florida was one of the best stories of Week One, as they took it to Boise State in their opener. But, going into "The Swamp" and taking down the Gators is a whole different challenge. 

The Pick: Florida, 34 South Florida, 17

Upset: (#12) Arizona State Sun Devils @ Mississippi State Bulldogs -- A much tougher game than most people realize. Going into the pressure cooker that is Starkville is much different than people expect, and Mississippi State's offense looked like it was firing on all cylinders in Week One. The Sun Devil defense is better than Southern Mississippi's, but I still like the upset here.

The Pick: Mississippi State, 30 Arizona State, 278

Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Oklahoma State Cowboys (+30) @ Oregon Ducks -- Listen, I know Oregon is going to be good this year. And Oklahoma State went 3-9. And it's in Eugene. But, this line is still pretty wild, right? We don't know enough about either to have a super strong opinion, but Mike Gundy is going to have his team fired up enough to at least cover.

The Pick: Oregon, 45 Oklahoma State, 17

Lock of the Week: Ole Miss Rebels (-9) @ Kentucky Wildcats -- Kentucky shocked Ole Miss last fall in one of the biggest upsets of the year, but I don't see that happening again. Lane Kiffin is going to be out for blood, and I'm not convinced this Wildcats team is much better than the 4-8 team we saw last fall.

The Pick: Ole Miss, 31 Kentucky, 14