College Football Picks 2025: Week One

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

 

(#1) Texas Longhorns @ (#3) Ohio State Buckeyes

Line: Ohio State -1.5

O/U: 46.5

You can't ask for a better way to get the first true Saturday of the college football season rolling than this matchup between Texas and Ohio State. The reigning National Champions are out to prove they're still the team to beat - the preseason No. 1 team is looking to show they're ready to climb the mountaintop. There are endless storylines to watch, but only one team will come out victorious, and position themselves as the early National Title favorite this fall.

After two seasons waiting behind Quinn Ewers, it is now Arch Manning time in Austin. One of the most high profile recruits in college football history, we've seen some of Arch so far, including a pair of starts last fall when Ewers was out with injury, but this feels like his true coming out party. And what better place to do so than one of the most raucous environments in college football in "The Shoe"? It will be interesting to see what the supporting cast looks like for Manning, as the Longhorns said goodbye to Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond at wide receiver over the offseason, and saw their offensive line hit hard by NFL defections. You have to imagine they're going to look to pound the ball early as Arch acclimates to the game, especially considering that Ohio State is replacing countless defenders throughout the front seven themselves. Quintrevion Wisner was the most underrated element of the Texas offense a season ago, and now C.J. Baxter looks to be healthy after missing all of last season. That gives the 'Horns quite the effective duo, one with a nice blend of power and game-breaking speed. If they're successful in establishing the run early, they have a much better chance of taking the top off this Buckeye defense as the game moves on. Ryan Wingo will be the feature guy on the outside, at least to begin the year, and should be the focus of Ohio State's efforts in the secondary. With Davison Igbinosun and Caleb Downs, Ohio State can take away a whole side of the field, and how Texas chooses to adjust should have a major impact on the end result of this one. 

All eyes may be on Arch, but Ohio State is breaking in a new quarterback of their own, as Julian Sayin takes command of the offense after an offseason QB battle. The former Alabama transfer may not have much experience to work off of, but the Buckeyes have raved about him over the offseason, and he has the luxury of throwing to the best group of pass-catchers in college football. Superstar sophomore Jeremiah Smith is the big name for the Buckeyes, but with Carnell Tate, Brandon Inniss, and now Purdue tight end transfer Max Klare, Sayin has an abundance of options at his disposal. He'll also have the benefit of the home crowd behind him, a luxury Arch certainly will not have, and one that can make all the difference between two young quarterbacks playing in an important game. Interestingly enough, the Buckeyes' greatest question on offense is where the Longhorns strength lies, as it's still a bit of a mystery what OSU will feature at running back this year without TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Former West Virginia transfer C.J. Donaldson and sophomore James Peoples are widely expected to get the first crack at being the top options, but we'll learn a lot quickly about the long-term gameplan for Ohio State here. Even with all the talent the Buckeyes can feature on this side of the ball, this is still going to be a challenge for them against this Texas defense. The Longhorns have elite talent at every level and a clear identity, with coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski in his fourth season in the role. Colin Simmons is the big name off the edge who should look to make his presence felt, but Texas features athletes all over the field and has the type of athleticism that will be able to keep up with Ohio State, a rarity in college football today. They may not be able to completely stop Smith and company, but they certainly have a chance to keep them in check enough to come away victorious.

With both teams replacing so much NFL talent and this being the season opener, it's so difficult to feel overly strong about either of these teams and their chances in this game. They feel evenly matched top to bottom, but I do think Texas holds a clear advantage defensively. It's not just the talent, as Ohio State features Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles, but the continuity and stability there. The Longhorn defense knows exactly who they are and has shown their worth against elite offenses. I do think they're able to make enough stops and Arch and company do enough on the other side of the ball that the 'Horns are able to get their revenge from being eliminated in the College Football Playoff last winter.

The Pick: Texas, 28 Ohio State, 24

(#9) LSU Tigers @ (#4) Clemson Tigers

Full College Football Preview 2025

Arch Manning, Texas

Top 25

1. Clemson Tigers -- Dabo's Tigers have taken a step back in the early 2020s, but 2025 has all the makings of a resurgent campaign. They have a veteran QB, Cade Klubnik, playing in his third year in the offense, elite talent at receiver, and superb play along the lines. The Tigers should slice through the ACC and position themselves for their first National Title since their blowout win in 2018.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes -- The Buckeyes boast the two best players in all of college football in wideout Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs. Now, it's up to the supporting cast to determine whether they can repeat as National Champions. QB Julian Sayin has all the upside in the world, but the X-Factor is likely on defense, as Matt Patricia takes over as coordinator.

3. Texas Longhorns -- It's finally Arch Manning time in Austin, so it's no surprise the Longhorns are a popular preseason National Title pick. Even so, growing pains may still happen, as they face down a brutal schedule as Arch acclimates to the starting role. Fortunately, an elite defense should ensure the 'Horns are still the team to beat in the loaded SEC.

4. Penn State Nittany Lions -- Several big-name Nittany Lions decided to wait on the NFL, including QB Drew Allar, backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, and defensive linemen Dani Dennis-Sutton. Will that be enough to deliver a National Title? James Franklin is still out to prove he can win the big ones, and this may be the best team he's had to do just that.

5. Alabama Crimson Tide -- Kalen DeBoer's debut campaign didn't go exactly as planned, but the Tide are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball as they enter 2025. If long-awaited quarterback Ty Simpson can keep the offense moving and the defense plays up to their potential, Alabama will be right back in the Playoff after the one-year hiatus.

6. Georgia Bulldogs -- It does feel like the 'Dawgs are being a bit overlooked as we head into 2025. They're still loaded with talent, including one of my breakout stars, sophomore safety K.J. Bolden. Gunner Stockton should stabilize the quarterback position after Carson Beck's struggles last season, while Nate Frazier is a future star at tailback.

7. Oregon Ducks -- For most of the 2024 season, Oregon was perched No. 1 as the best team in the country. To do that and suffer a humiliating defeat to Ohio State in the Rose Bowl will serve as extra motivation for a team with no shortage of blue-chip recruits. Dan Lanning and staff strategically plugged further holes through the portal, meaning they'll be right back in the hunt this fall.

8. Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- Marcus Freeman silenced a lot of doubters last season. Now, what does he do for an encore? Returning the Doak Walker Award frontrunner, Jeremiyah Love, is a great starting point, and the Irish are always stout on defense. That means new starting QB C.J. Carr may end up determining just how far ND goes this year.

9. LSU Tigers -- Brian Kelly enters this season under a fair bit of pressure after an up-and-down three seasons in Baton Rouge. The Tigers have won plenty of games, but it has felt as though they've underachieved in many aspects, too. Heisman contender Garrett Nussmeier is back for 2025, but it's the defense that has been the problem over the last two seasons, and will determine their fate again this year.

10. Arizona State Sun Devils -- It doesn't feel like 2024 was some fluke from Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils. This program is built to become a true long-term contender in the Big 12, even with Cam Skattebo gone. Watch for QB Sam Leavitt and top receiver Jordyn Tyson to become the fuel of the offense this fall instead.

11. Miami Hurricanes -- Cam Ward is gone, but the Hurricanes are hopeful Carson Beck can regain his old form as he comes in as starting quarterback. He should keep the offense humming along, but the more important offseason addition was likely defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, who will be tasked with rebuilding that side of the ball.

12. Kansas State Wildcats -- They may have come up short in Dublin in Week Zero, but I still believe the Wildcats have an incredibly high floor. It's a team with a clear identity, a veteran quarterback, and a capable supporting cast. If they can recover from the strange early-season schedule, they still have a shot to take the Big 12.

13. Illinois Fighting Illini -- How does Illinois handle being considered a Big Ten frontrunner after winning ten games in 2024? They return a lot on both sides of the ball, including steady quarterback Luke Altmyer under center. The receiver corps did take a hit, but it still feels like this Illini team is ready to compete for double-digit wins yet again.

14. Florida Gators -- On paper, I love this Florida team. D.J. Lagway had a promising freshman season and the sky appears to be the limit, Jadan Baugh could be special at tailback, and they are strong along both lines of scrimmage. But, a brutal schedule seems to cap their ceiling. Not only do they get LSU, Texas, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Tennessee inside the SEC, they travel to Miami and welcome Florida State. If not for that overwhelming slate, this ranking could end up being far too low.

15. Iowa State Cyclones -- This may be Iowa State's best shot at a conference title in over a century. They have a steady QB in Rocco Becht, a two-headed monster at running back, and plenty of pieces to like on defense. If they can travel the hangover from the Ireland travel, they have a very good shot to get into deep October or even November undefeated.

16. South Carolina Gamecocks -- LaNorris Sellers is one of the most exciting players in college football. Dylan Stewart has the chance to be an All-American at defensive end. But, how does Shane Beamer replace all the other production that left over the offseason? The Gamecocks have a chance to be dangerous, but this season will tell us a lot about just how well Beamer has built things here in Columbia.

17. Baylor Bears -- The Bears ended last season on fire, and I don't see the momentum stopping anytime soon. Sawyer Robertson heads an offense that also includes tailback Bryson Washington and Josh Cameron, plus a well-built O-Line. If the defense can hold up, Baylor will be firmly in the Big 12 Title hunt.

18. SMU Mustangs -- Was the 2024 season an aberration? The result of a soft first-time ACC schedule? Or, has Rhett Lashlee built a consistent contender here in Dallas? This season will tell us a lot, as the Mustangs return QB Kevin Jennings and a bunch of key pieces, but also face a much more difficult path back to the CFB Playoff than they did last fall. 

19. Michigan Wolverines -- Bryce Underwood is officially the guy in Ann Arbor. Can he get the Wolverines back into National Title contention? Perhaps, but 2025 is likely more of a transition year for the program as they adjust to Underwood and fix holes on defense. If they can improve on last season's 8-5 mark, a huge 2026 could be on the horizon.

20. Boise State Broncos -- The ever-steady Broncos aren't going to completely fall apart without Ashton Jeanty. They have become a running back factory, plus QB Maddux Madsen should be able to handle more of the load in 2025. If the defense can get even better, especially against the pass, the Broncos should play themselves back into the Playoff.

21. Iowa Hawkeyes -- We saw Iowa's offensive progress last season - but can they do without Kaleb Johnson? Bringing on a dual-threat in Mark Gronowski at QB makes this team much more interesting, and he has plenty of pieces around him to like. With the Hawkeyes almost sure to be stingy on defense once again, this feels like a team with a very high floor.

22. Ole Miss Rebels -- Jaxson Dart is off to the NFL, as are his top two receivers in Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins. Yet, Lane Kiffin seems confident Austin Simmons is the latest and greatest at quarterback, and the Rebels reloaded out wide. Add in a schedule that appears favorable compared to other top contenders in the SEC, Ole Miss could match or even exceed last year's 10 wins.

23. Louisville Cardinals -- Can Louisville push the top trio in the ACC in Clemson, Miami, and SMU? Bringing back star tailback Isaac Brown will certainly help, and the QB whisperer Jeff Brohm has his latest project in Miller Moss, coming over from USC.

24. Texas Tech Red Raiders -- Texas Tech spent big over the offseason to build a roster they believe will compete for a Big 12 Title and Playoff berth. How they handle those elevated expectations could determine their success. Perhaps more important, however, is the health of QB Behren Morton, who needs to stay healthy for this team to achieve their goals.

25. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -- I love Georgia Tech as the ACC's dark horse team in 2025. Haynes King is a proven vet, Jamal Haynes is a hard-nosed tailback, and transfer Eric Rivers may be the best receiver you've never heard about. Add in a stout, physical defense, the Yellow Jackets should surprise some folks this fall.

Just Missed the Cut: Texas A&M Aggies; Tulane Green Wave; Utah Utes; BYU Cougars; UNLV Rebels; USC Trojans

College Football Playoff Field

First Round

5 Penn State Nittany Lions over 12 Boise State Broncos

6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish over 11 Miami Hurricanes

7 Oregon Ducks over 10 Arizona State Sun Devils

9 LSU Tigers over 8 Georgia Bulldogs

Byes: (1) Clemson Tigers, (2) Ohio State Buckeyes, (3) Texas Longhorns, (4) Alabama Crimson Tide

Second Round

1 Clemson Tigers over 9 LSU Tigers

2 Ohio State Buckeyes over 7 Oregon Ducks

3 Texas Longhorns over 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

5 Penn State Nittany Lions over 4 Alabama Crimson Tide

Semifinals

1 Clemson Tigers over 5 Penn State Nittany Lions

3 Texas Longhorns over 2 Ohio State Buckeyes

National Championship

1 Clemson Tigers over 3 Texas Longhorns

Conference Predictions

ACC: Clemson over SMU

American: Tulane over Memphis

Big Ten: Ohio State over Penn State

Big 12: Arizona State over Kansas State

C-USA: Liberty over Western Kentucky

MAC: Ohio over Toledo

Mountain West: Boise State over UNLV

SEC: Texas over Alabama

Sun Belt: Georgia Southern over Arkansas State

Awards

Heisman: Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State (winner); Cade Klubnk. QB, Clemson (finalist); Sawyer Robertson, QB, Baylor (finalist); Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (finalist)

Doak Walker: Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame (winner); Nate Frazier, Georgia (finalist); Demond Claiborne, Wake Forest

Biletnikoff: Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State (winner); Cam Coleman, Auburn (finalist); Kenny Odom, UTEP (finalist)

Mackey: Eli Stowers, Vanderbilt (winner); Addison Ostrenga, Iowa (finalist); Justin Joly, NC State (finalist)

Butkus: Whit Weeks, LSU (winner); Sonny Styles, Ohio State (finalist); Jason Henderson, Old Dominion (finalist)

Thorpe: Caleb Downs, Ohio State (winner); K.J. Bolden, Georgia (finalist); Aveion Terrell, Clemson (finalist)

Coach of the Year: Dabo Swinney, Clemson (winner); Matt Campbell, Iowa State (finalist); Kalen DeBoer (finalist)

College Football Preview 2025: Big 12 Part 2

Jalon Daniels, Kansas

 Power Rankings

Teams 1-8 in Part 1

9. Colorado Buffaloes

A disappointing conclusion to the 2023 campaign had Deion Sanders and Colorado eager to prove they could live up to the hype last fall - and they did just that. Although there were the occasional hiccups, the Buffaloes went 9-4 overall and 7-2 in the Big 12, before a late-season loss to Kansas spoiled their conference title hopes. Add on the fact Colorado featured their first Heisman winner in three decades in two-way superstar Travis Hunter, it was about as impressive as a Year Two as could have been expected from "Coach Prime" and company.

As the Buffaloes prepare for 2025, both the team and Deion himself have undergone their fair share of adversity. The roster will be without Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, two cornerstones who played a major role in their success last fall. And just as importantly, Deion was fighting health battles, having a cancer removed from his bladder over the offseason.

With Shedeur gone, Deion will head into his first season without his son as quarterback since he took over as a college football head coach. In his place, Colorado will turn to Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter, a dual threat who totaled 44 total touchdowns for the Flames in 2024. He doesn't have Shedeur's arm, but he has years of experience and should be able to acclimate quickly to his new digs. And by chance he doesn't, Deion landed one of the top high school quarterbacks in the country in Julian Lewis, who has been pushing Salter throughout spring and into fall camp.

The rest of the offense has greater questions. The Buffs said goodbye to not just Hunter, but several other top receivers, and they absolutely need their ground game to improve to find any semblance of balance. Sophomore Dre'lon Miller, who can play receiver and running back, is a name I have circled as a future star, but who else will emerge? A healthy Omarion Miller, who missed most of last fall, could be another name to watch.

The offensive line has been a weak spot for Colorado through the first two years of the Deion era, but there's reason to believe it could be a strength in 2025. Left tackle Jordan Seaton is a future pro who has a chance to emerge as one of the best in the Big 12 this year, while veteran Phillip Houston patrols the other tackle spot. The rest of the line should rely heavily on transfers, including former Illinois blocker Zarian McGill at center.

Defensively, Robert Livingston did a superb job on this side of the ball in 2024. The Buffaloes still had some issues defending the run, but they finished allowing 23.1 PPG (43th nationally) and just under 352 yards per game, which was 50th in the country. Considering how porous this unit was before he arrived, Livingston deserves a lot of credit.

As they head into this season, Colorado will be leaning on plenty of new faces, especially up front. Junior end Samuel Okunlola flashed last fall and should now be considered a leader, while transfers like Jaheim Oatis from Alabama and Arden Walker from Missouri, will be counted on to play significant snaps.

There's turnover in the secondary, too, but this feels like an area that could be a strength, even with Hunter gone. Junior corner D.J. McKinney looks ready to step into a leadership role, as will fellow veteran nickel Preston Hodge.

Bottom Line: Losing so much star power is never going to make things easy at a place like Colorado, but I actually think the Buffs could be slightly underrated heading into 2025. This roster still has a lot of talent, and Deion's work in high school recruiting and through the portal is beginning to show. Replicating nine wins will be awfully tough, but Colorado still looks like a bowl team, with the potential to be even more in the ever-wacky Big 12.

10. Kansas Jayhawks

College Football Preview 2025: Big 12 Part 1

Sam Leavitt, Arizona State

Power Rankings

1. Arizona State Sun Devils

There may not have been a better story in all of college football last fall than the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Sun Devils were fresh off a 3-9 season in Kenny Dillingham's debut campaign, and were picked last by the media in the preseason poll.

It quickly became apparent the preseason prognosticators had been dead wrong about the Sun Devils, who ripped off ten wins in the regular season and then pounded Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game. But, their success wasn't merely a product of a weak Big 12 - they gave Texas all they could handle in a double overtime loss in the Peach Bowl in one of the games of the year.

Now, the key for Dillingham and company will be about keeping the momentum going, and they'll have to do so without star tailback Cam Skattebo. Skattebo broke the school's single-season rushing record after going for 1,711 yards and 24 total touchdowns, and he was the heart-and-soul of the team. Fortunately, the cupboard is not bare on offense, as QB Sam Leavitt and top wide out Jordyn Tyson both return.

Leavitt, a former transfer from Michigan State, was a revelation in his first season in Tempe. He not only threw for 2,885 yards and 24 touchdowns, he looked in complete command of the offense and limited turnovers. It will be interesting to see how he handles being the star of the offense with Skattebo gone, but having a reliable weapon like Tyson will help significantly.

Returnees Kyson Brown and Raleek Brown are expected to split time in Skattebo's absence in the backfield, although Army transfer Kanye Udoh should also be in the rotation. The entire trio will benefit from running behind one of the strongest offensive lines in the Big 12, a group that returns four starters.

Don't be surprised if defense carries the way for Arizona State in 2025, as they return nine starters on this side of the ball. It all starts up front, where defensive tackle C.J. Fite is flanked by relentless edge rushers Prince Dorbah and Clayton Smith. Behind that group, linebackers Keyshaun Elliott and Jordan Crook have played a lot of football in their collegiate days.

The pass defense was an issue at times last fall, surrendering nearly 227 yards per game, which ranked 81st in the country. Fortunately, where the only significant loss, albeit a notable one, is nickelback Shamari Simmons. The group of Keith Abney II, Javan Robinson, Xavion Alford, and Myles Rowser should turn this from a question mark into a real strength for the Sun Devils.

Bottom Line: As impressive as the 2024 season was, it didn't feel like a fluke. Dillingham, an Arizona State alum himself, feels like the perfect fit in Tempe, and this program has always had limitless potential. Leavitt, Tyson, and a veteran offensive line will ensure the offense is able to overcome any early speed bumps, and the defense has the chance to be among the best in the league. Add in the fact the other top contenders in the Big 12 have questions of their own to answer, Arizona State feels like the clear favorite in the league as we inch towards the 2025 regular season.

2. Kansas State Wildcats

College Football Preview 2025: Big Ten Part 2

Darius Taylor, Minnesota

 Power Rankings

Teams 1-9 in Part 1

10. Washington Huskies

There were understandable growing pains in Year One of the Jedd Fisch era in Seattle. The Huskies started off a respectable 3-1 but faded down the stretch, before a heartbreaking loss in the Sun Bowl dropped them to 6-7 on the year.

Despite the frustrations of the second half, an important development did occur: the emergence of quarterback Demond Williams. Williams finished the regular season strong, then went for five total touchdowns in the eventual Sun Bowl defeat, a sign of what Washington hopes is to come. Williams earned rave reviews over the offseason and now enters his sophomore season as a popular breakout candidate.

Williams will benefit from a quality supporting cast, as veteran tailback Jonah Coleman joins him in the backfield, and Denzel Boston is set to reprise his role as top option at wide out. Coleman has proven to be a reliable workhorse, while Boston has caught the eye of NFL scouts with a strong frame and staggering catch radius at 6'4", 207 pounds. Add in Penn State transfer Omari Evans at receiver, this could be a fun passing attack.

The offensive line was a problem area in 2024 and despite additions in the portal, the group appears to still have questions entering this fall. There has been significant turnover in this unit over the last couple years, so simply finding stability should be a goal this season.

The defense was an interesting one last season, struggling against the run but boasting the second-best pass defense numbers anywhere in the country. Now, Ryan Walters takes over as coordinator after being booted as Purdue head coach after only two seasons.

Walters will try to instill an edge to a front seven that simply didn't have much bite last fall. There are a host of transfers likely to man important roles, including Jacob Manu, a former Arizona Wildcat under Fisch who should be a key leader.

There is a chance we could still a slight drop in the numbers in the secondary, but this still figures to be a strength for the Huskies. Ephesians Prysock teams back up with his former Arizona Wildcat teammate Tacario Davis, who said no to the NFL Draft to reunite with Fisch and staff. With those two, Washington has a pair of accomplished, reliable veterans who have played a lot of football with each other.

Bottom Line: It was almost a Year Zero for Fisch in 2024 considering just how much turnover there was on this roster last offseason. He's still in the early stages of developing and building this roster, but 2025 looks like it could be a season of progress. There's some interesting talent offensively and if the front seven can find something, the defense has a chance to be quite strong. A soft non-conference slate is promising, but things look brutal inside the league this year, which means 7-8 wins feels like the ceiling for the Huskies.

11. Minnesota Golden Gophers