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| Devon Dampier, Utah |
Upset: 2-1
Superdogs: 2-1
Locks: 0-3
(#9) Illinois Fighting Illini @ (#19) Indiana Hoosiers
Line: Indiana -6.5
O/U: 52.5
So far, the top Big Ten teams have rolled through their non-conference schedule, but we'll learn a lot about the league this weekend. Not only does Michigan square off with Nebraska in Lincoln, but the Illinois Fighting Illini head to Bloomington to match up with the Indiana Hoosiers. Both teams have legitimate College Football Playoff aspirations, and a win here could give their resume a nice boost early on in mid-September.
It's been smooth sailing en route to a 3-0 start for the Illini, riding a balanced offense and stingy defense. Luke Altmyer has looked in complete control, throwing for eight touchdowns without an interception to this point in the year, the backfield has three legitimate weapons, and the receiver corps has recovered well from an offseason that saw them lose Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin. Yet, this will almost certainly be the toughest defense they've seen all season long, and in a hostile environment. Mikail Kamara gets most of the attention for the Hoosiers up front, but this is a group with playmakers at all three levels. They may not necessarily be the most talented, but Indiana prepares incredibly well on this side of the ball and they play hard for Curt Cignetti. Illinois is going to have to use all the tools in their arsenal to move the ball consistently, and that may include taking more shots down the field than what we've seen over the first three weeks. Yet, the win over Duke earlier in the year has to show the playbook for what they'll look to do against Indiana, especially when you consider this is their only other power conference game to this point. The Illini started fairly slow, establishing the run and playing a more conservative style of offense. But they made the right adjustments at halftime, began throwing the ball down the field, and held on to the ball to dominate time of possession. While not necessarily easy, if the Illini can jump out to a lead early, this is the type of balanced offensive approach that can simply sit on leads and take the entire game away from their opponent.
The new-look Hoosier offense hasn't had much difficulties themselves, averaging 52 points over the course of their first three games of the fall. Now, to be fair, the opponents so far? Indiana State, Old Dominion, and Kennesaw State - not exactly elite competition. But it still has to be encouraging for this team to look so crisp early on in the season when you consider they are breaking in a new QB, Fernando Mendoza, and new lead back in Roman Hemby. Mendoza to be is the most interesting player to watch in this game. You saw the potential with him when he was at Cal, and there's a reason he's caught the eye of NFL scouts with his 6'5" frame. With that being said, consistency has been an issue for Mendoza, and he simply has not played in a lot of important games over the course of his college career. Could the moment be too much for him? Illinois has long been a defense that is able to switch up their looks to confuse opposing quarterbacks, and the secondary has looked good so far this season. It's going to be a very interesting battle here. Fortunately, Mendoza does have the benefit of throwing to a very strong receiver corps, one that includes a trio of veterans in Omar Cooper, Elijah Sarratt, and E.J. Williams. Indiana feels like the more explosive team, at least on paper, but is there an adjustment period we should expect considering the increase in competition? There's a lot of variables to consider here and so early on in the season, we don't have a very accurate picture of either one of these teams.
This is a true coin flip type pick for me. Indiana feels like the team with the higher ceiling given the talent on both sides of the ball and what the personnel is capable of. But, how can we accurately view a team like this that has played such meager competition? I have a better idea of who the Illini are, but do they have the vertical passing game and weapons to overcome a tough opponent on the road? In a true 50-50, I tend to lean towards the home team, as boring as it is. The Hoosiers feel like they should be the better team, too, if things come together, but it's bound to be a close one all the same.
The Pick: Indiana, 27 Illinois, 24
(#17) Texas Tech Red Raiders @ (#17) Utah Utes
Line: Utah -3.5
O/U: 56.5
The Big 12 race feels as wide open as ever before as we head into Week Four. Iowa State got the big (or so it seemed at the time) win over Kansas State to begin the year, but they've underwhelmed in recent weeks. Arizona State has lost. Kansas State is a mess. That opens the door for one of these two teams set to collide this weekend to position themselves as an early favorite, as Texas Tech travels to altitude to face off with Utah.
Few teams in all of college football spent as much this past offseason to build a winning roster as Texas Tech, and it has paid off so far en route to a 3-0 start. Yet, none of their wins have been overly impressive to this point - Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Kent State, and Oregon State. Going into Salt Lake City and coming away victorious is a whole different challenge, one that will require a fully healthy and ready to go Behren Morton at quarterback. The veteran is one of the best in the Big 12 when healthy, but injuries have been an unfortunate theme of his career. He had shoulder surgery last December and seemed ready to go for this fall, but has been banged up early, albeit not missing any significant time. The pressure is on him as the Red Raiders prepare for this contest. Morton has had an impressive career and played a lot of football here, but has never quite been able to show up in the biggest moments and get this program over the edge. Against an always-stout Ute defense, if he can come in and make some huge throws, it could make all the difference for the Red Raiders. Morton is also extra important considering this ground game seems to still be getting rolling as it moves forward without star Tahj Brooks. It's been a rotation early on, as it's likely to be this fall unless somebody overwhelms the competition, with Adam Hill leading the charge so far. Statistically, they've been good, but Utah's defensive front is a significant challenge. Few teams in the country fill gaps and are as fundamentally sound as the Utes, who always seem to have several linebackers who can take over games on the defensive end. This year, it's Lander Barton, a former blue chip recruit who has lived up to the hype for the Utes. I am very curious to see how Tech responds to the physicality they're going to face here. This has long been a program that wants to spread it all out and play on the perimeter, but the personnel has changed in a big way. Are they ready to go on the road and win a grinding, physical game against a team of Utah's caliber? They have the talent to do so, but this has not been the type of game the Red Raiders have succeeded in historically.
The Utes haven't exactly been playing elite competition themselves as they've begun 3-0. They destroyed former Pac-12 foe UCLA to begin the year and then cruised past Cal Poly and Wyoming. The defense has been unsurprisingly terrific, but it has been a fascinating watch to see the offense evolve this fall. Quarterback Devon Dampier is a much different player than we've come to expect from Kyle Whittingham QBs. He's a true dual threat and a playmaker who is going to take risks with the ball, whether with his legs or his arm. So far, it hasn't harmed the Utes, as Dampier hasn't turned the ball over, and has ran all over opposing defenses. This game against the Red Raiders is a bit different - their front seven was one of the key areas they spent big on over the offseason, and the secondary has been a pleasant surprise. Dampier is going to want to take things over, but his first interception of the season could be the type of thing that swings the tide in a competitive game like this. The Utes do feature a quality running game beyond just Dampier and out wide, Ryan Davis and tight end Dallen Bentley give them enough to overcome opposing defenses. With all that being said, where I see the game being decided is in the trenches, specifically this matchup between Utah's O-Line and Tech's defensive front. Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu are likely future NFL Draftees for the Utes, and their ability to control the line of scrimmage has been central to Utah's identity. The Red Raiders will get after opposing quarterbacks, especially end David Bailey, but I'm not sure how good their rush defense is just yet. I think the Utes are just fine turning this into a slow, churning game and riding their defense and home atmosphere to victory. It's a formula that has been awfully successful for Whittingham in his coaching career.
Yet another game that's difficult to predict so early in the year, because we just don't know a ton about either of these teams. With that being said, Utah has always had a clear identity and even with Dampier under center, they are going to play a similar brand of football. They know how to win low-scoring games and the atmosphere in Salt Lake City is unmatched, even so early on in the morning. Until we see it from Texas Tech in a big game, I like the Utes in this game.
The Pick: Utah, 21 Texas Tech, 18
Other Picks
(#22) Auburn Tigers @ (#11) Oklahoma Sooners -- An opportunity for a Jackson Arnold revenge game, as the former Sooner and current Tiger heads back to Norman. He's looked good running the ball early, but I'm not sold on this Auburn passing attack. I'm not sold on their defense, for that matter, a worrying combination against a team like Oklahoma.
The Pick: Oklahoma, 42 Auburn, 28
Florida Gators @ (#4) Miami Hurricanes -- As frustrating as last week was for Florida, they did stick around deep into the second half against the nation's third best team - with five turnovers from D.J. Lagway. They have a chance to make this a game. But, the Hurricanes are playing just too well at the moment.
The Pick: Miami, 34 Florida, 24
(#21) Michigan Wolverines @ Nebraska Cornhuskers -- May be one of the biggest games in recent memory for the 'Huskers, an opportunity for them to start 4-0 and snag a huge Big Ten victory. Yet, they've struggled to stop the run against quality competition - Cincinnati ran for nearly 7 yards per carry against them. Justice Haynes and the Wolverines pound the rock to victory.
The Pick: Michigan, 20 Nebraska, 14
Purdue Boilermakers @ (#24) Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- Rivalry games can always get a bit weird, and Purdue looks much improved in Year One of Barry Odom. Still, I'm not sure they have the firepower necessary to go into South Bend and drop the Irish to 0-3.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 35 Purdue, 13
Upset: Tulane Green Wave @ (#13) Ole Miss Rebels -- Tulane may not be at the talent level of an Ole Miss, but this is the type of well-coached, physical team the Rebels have struggled with. And, who is starting at QB for the Rebels? Trinidad Chambliss looked like an upgrade over Austin Simmons, but Simmons is expected to be back.
The Pick: Tulane, 31 Ole Miss, 28
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Temple Owls (+24.5) @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -- Fresh off an emotional, huge victory. Haynes King took a beating. The defense had to battle for all four quarters. I still like the Yellow Jackets to win comfortably here, but the Owls may keep it interesting enough to cover.
The Pick: Georgia Tech, 28 Temple, 10
Lock of the Week: UNLV Rebels (-2) @ Miami (Ohio) Redhawks -- UAB looked ready to reverse my winless locks start to the year - and then allowed a late Akron cover. Now I turn to UNLV, who is 3-0 and should be able to overcome a Miami (Ohio) team with a struggling offense.
The Pick: UNLV, 27 Miami (Ohio), 14
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