Ty Simpson, Alabama
Current Picks Record: 23-13
Upset: 2-2
Superdogs: 3-1
Locks: 1-3
(#6) Oregon Ducks @ (#3) Penn State Nittany Lions
Line: Penn State -3.5
O/U: 51.5
We learned a lot about the Big Ten last weekend, when Michigan escaped with a win over Nebraska and Indiana took it to Illinois. Yet, both those games pale in comparison to the matchup in primetime Saturday night. Two undefeated teams, Penn State and Oregon, square off under the lights in Happy Valley in what could be a Big Ten Championship Game preview. It feels like the entire month for both these teams has been building to this game, and we should have a good one to highlight Week Five.
Both teams have ran through a buttery soft non-conference slate to this point, which is especially true of Penn State. The Nittany Lions have beaten Nevada, FIU, and Villanova en route to their 3-0 start, all comfortable victories. It's hard to take anything significant from any of those wins - the Nittany Lions rolled without much issue, but they likely held a lot back on both sides of the ball knowing Oregon was later in the month. Quarterback Drew Allar has been fine, but nothing particularly special. The thing is, he hasn't needed to be, as Penn State has held a clear advantage in talent against every time they've faced, and been able to ride the two-headed backfield of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen to success. That will obviously not be the case against the Ducks. This is a front seven with a bunch of future NFL guys, built in the mold of the SEC defenses we used to see back in the late 2000s and early 2010s. This is going to be an absolute war at the line of scrimmage, and it may come down to whether Allar can make the big throws. In fact, that seems to be a consistent theme of Allar's career up to this point. He's won a lot of games, put up impressive numbers, and is widely considered among the best in the nation. But, it feels like he hasn't had a true breakout game on the big stage against an elite defense. Oregon would provide that moment, but he does need help from his receivers out wide. Trebor Pena has been a helpful addition but will need to elevate his play, as will Kyron Hudson. I am curious if Penn State has more tricks up their sleeve than just those two. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is a creative guy, and used tight end Tyler Warren in a bunch of unique ways last fall. Do we see Penn State break out something new we haven't seen yet this fall? This would certainly be the game to do it in.
It's been smooth sailing for Oregon to this point, too, and they do have a Big Ten to their credit already after taking down Northwestern on the road. Quarterback Dante Moore has been absolutely dealing up to this point in the year and has garnered early Heisman attention. No Evan Stewart has been no problem, with Dakorien Moore stealing the show out wide, but there are an abundance of options here. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq is a matchup nightmare, and Malik Benson and Gary Bryant Jr. are proven veterans providing plenty of spark of their own. The ground game has been interesting - Makhi Hughes was expected to be the alpha after coming over after a huge year at Tulane, but he's been quiet early. Instead, it's been Jayden Limar, Noah Whittington, and Dierre Hill Jr. getting the bulk of action so far. You do wonder if that has more to do with the fact most of the early action for Oregon so far has been in blowouts, or if that's how this backfield is going to shape out the rest of the season. Has Hughes also been not 100 percent? Either way, the Ducks are all operating behind an elite offensive line, giving playcaller Will Stein all the toys he needs to engineer some real magic on this side of the ball. Yet, this is going to be a fascinating chess match between Stein and his opponent on the other side, Penn State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Knowles is one of the truly elite defensive minds in the game today, and he completely flummoxed Oregon in last year's Rose Bowl while at Ohio State. With the Nittany Lions, he has a defense that may not have the star power of last year's Buckeyes, but has ample experience. They're going to throw a lot at Moore and company, a quarterback who really has not played in this type of environment in primetime before.
I feel like a broken record throughout the month of September, but it's true - we simply don't know that much about either of these teams just yet. Sure, they've beaten up on inferior teams and looked pretty dang impressive while doing so. But, this type of game, in Happy Valley with so much talent and future NFL players on the field? It's completely different. Penn State hasn't quite looked as crisp as Oregon early, but they do get the home crowd behind them and the Knowles factor is a decisive one. You know he's been preparing for months for this exact game, eager to deploy the right scheme to slow down Moore and the Ducks. I think the Nittany Lions turn this one into a bit of a slow-paced, almost ugly type of football game and lean on their power-run game the other way to lead them to victory.
The Pick: Penn State, 24 Oregon, 21
(#17) Alabama Crimson Tide @ (#5) Georgia Bulldogs
Line: Georgia -3.5
O/U: 52.5
Last season's Georgia-Alabama game was among the best of the entire fall, and now the two reprise their rivalry during a loaded Week Five slate. Alabama has looked superb since a frustrating season-opening loss to Florida State, while Georgia is in great position after a come-from-behind win over Tennessee a couple weeks ago. This game is always a good one, but with so many important implications, it should be a fun Saturday night in Athens.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson took a ton of flack for his performance in the Tide's opener, but he's looked in complete control over the last two weeks. To be fair, those games have come against Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin, but it was important for him to get his confidence back up as he goes back on the road to face the Bulldogs. There's no question he has a bunch of talent to work with out wide, including Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton. Bernard in particular seems to finally be having his breakthrough after a long and winding college career, and he should command extra attention with how much Alabama will move him around the field. My questions about the Alabama offense lie in both their offensive line and rushing attack. This has been such a strength of the program for so long, it's strange that the Tide seem to be struggling in these areas. The O-Line does seem to have found its confidence, much like Simpson, but Georgia is always going to be a battle up front. Are they ready to go an entire sixty minutes? The ground game has been really impacted by the absence of Jam Miller, who has not yet played this season. Miller was not listed on the injury report earlier in the week so the expectation is that he will play, albeit Alabama may work him in gradually. Georgia's not exactly the defense you want to start your season with, but this Bulldog defense has shown some chinks in their armor so far this year, too. Tennessee is a difficult offense to contain, but there were still some surprising breakdowns in that game, even if the Bulldogs appeared to figure things out down the stretch. This can be a very explosive Alabama offense when things are working well, and I just don't see Georgia built like a team that wants to play shootout in these types of games.
It doesn't feel like this Georgia offense has the same star power we've seen on past Bulldog teams, but it's hard to argue with the results up to this point in the season. They've been a balanced, productive group, with a veteran QB at the helm in Gunner Stockton. Stockton represents an upgrade over the 2024 version of Carson Beck, because of how well he takes care of the ball. He's not going to go out and set the world on fire most nights, but we've seen this Georgia team win a lot of games with a lot worse under center. Of course, Stockton does benefit from a much better receiver corps than what we saw last season for Beck. Zachariah Branch has been an important addition and Colbie Young is healthy again, giving this team quite the dynamic duo. It should be an interesting test here with Alabama - we haven't really seen this Tide secondary against a strong passing offense yet this fall. We know there is talent on this back-end, that has never been the problem, but it should be a fun matchup to watch. Yet, my curiosity again lies in the battle of the trenches. The expectation is that Tim Keenan, Alabama's top interior D-Linemen, will also be making his season debut, much like Jam Miller. His presence is huge for a Tide defense that was gashed by Florida State. If he can reinforce the Tide defensive front, I think they have a real shot to slow down this Georgia ground game, which hasn't exactly overwhelmed early. Even with Stockton playing well and what the Bulldogs have out wide, we know Kirby Smart and staff do not want to be leaning heavily on chucking the ball all over the field.
It was Ryan Williams coming out party last season in this game, one where Alabama jumped to an early lead, briefly gave it up, then found a way to come out victorious. I would not be surprised if we see that back-and-forth nature once more, but I actually like Alabama's chances to win again here. Am I reading too much in to a pair of victories over inferior foes the last couple weeks? Perhaps, but they also match up well with Georgia, and I think this is a much better team than what we saw in the opener. With this team only getting healthier, I like their chances to steal a win on the road.
The Pick: Alabama, 35 Georgia, 27
Other Picks
(#4) LSU Tigers @ (#13) Ole Miss Rebels -- These are two teams that appear to be going in opposite directions, with LSU underwhelming in recent weeks while the Rebels are rolling. Yet, I think this much improved LSU defense makes a statement in this game. They're good enough to force Trinidad Chambliss back to Earth after his career day last weekend.
The Pick: LSU, 30 Ole Miss, 20
(#21) USC Trojans @ (#23) Illinois Fighting Illini - I think Illinois is a much better team than what we saw last Saturday, but this team is still likely licking their wounds as they prepare for this USC team. We know what the Trojans can do offensively, not exactly an ideal situation for an Illini team that just gave up 63.
The Pick: USC, 41 Illinois, 31
(#1) Ohio State Buckeyes @ Washington Huskies -- This could be a very interesting game. Seattle is a much tougher place to play than most realize, and this is the first true test for Ohio State since Texas. Even so, I think they just have too many offensive weapons to overwhelm the Huskies.
The Pick: Ohio State, 38 Washington, 24
Auburn Tigers @ (#9) Texas A&M Aggies -- I'm still not entirely sold on Texas A&M given how much heavy lifting the Notre Dame win is doing for their resume. But, Auburn just feels so one-dimensional at this point. Unless Jackson Arnold can figure things out through the air, I don't see the Tigers beating a lot of good football teams, particularly on the road.
The Pick: Texas A&M, 27 Auburn, 17
Upset: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. (#11) Indiana Hoosiers -- We all know the magic that Kinnick Stadium has at night when ranked teams come into town. And, Indiana is coming off a huge win? It would almost feel wrong for me not to pick this upset.
The Pick: Iowa, 24 Indiana, 21
Lock of the Week: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4) @ Arkansas Razorbacks -- If you're looking for offense, this is the game in the early slate to watch. Notre Dame is experiencing an offensive renaissance - at the same time their defense has been a disaster. Even so, I think this team is much better on both sides of the ball and there's a clear edge on the sidelines in this matchup.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 45 Arkansas, 34
Double Lock: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-3) @ Missouri State Bears -- With so few "Superdog" options to choose from this week, I'm bringing out the double lock instead. I see value here with Western Kentucky - they seem to be getting better each and every week and should go into Springfield and be able to win this game comfortably.
The Pick: Western Kentucky, 35 Missouri State, 21
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