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| Boogie Fland, Florida |
The Top Seed: Florida Gators
For the first time in program history, the Florida Gators are a No. 1 seed in back-to-back years of the NCAA Tournament. That's right, not even during the Billy Donovan years were the Gators a top seed in consecutive seasons, a testament to the work Todd Golden has done in Gainesville. Needless to say, the quest for a second straight National Title is alive and well after the Gators went 26-7 overall and 16-2 in the SEC. This team has a different feel than last year's group - they don't quite have the big shotmakers they did season with Walter Clayton Jr., but few in the country can match this frontcourt. Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon are an elite forward combo, and big man Rueben Chinyelu may be the team's MVP. His constant activity around the rim and rebounding prowess consistently allow Florida to extend possessions and capitalize on double chance opportunities. Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee may not have the star power of the backcourt from last winter, but they're capable, efficient guards who have played a lot of college basketball. There's a lot of ingredients to like about this team here, and the path isn't brutal. They may have the weakest 4/5 grouping of any region potentially awaiting them in the Sweet 16, so an Elite Eight berth at the very least feels like it's in play. Yet, after the run last season when you simply could not count out the Gators, even greater things are certainly in play.
Don't Forget About: Vanderbilt Commodores
Sure, I may not think this is the best 4/5 grouping in the field, but Vanderbilt is a much better team than the average fan may realize. Head coach Mark Byington inherited a mess when he took over in Nashville when he took over prior to the 2024-25 campaign. The Commodores had not played in March since 2017, and the end to the Bryce Drew and Jerry Stackhouse years were rough. In short order, Byington has built this team into a legitimate SEC contender, and it shows with their five-seed billing. This is a dangerous offensive team, one that averages over 86 points per contest, and they're led by one of the nation's most underrated players in Tyler Tanner. The sophomore has evolved from a bench option as a freshman into the roster's centerpiece, leading the Commodores in scoring, assists, and field goal percentage. Tanner's ability to get into the paint and open up space for the rest of the offense is a hallmark of the Byington system. What you'll notice watching this team is just how movement and activity there is, which creates a real headache for defenses over the course of 40 minutes. The path to the second weekend is clear, a feat Vanderbilt hasn't accomplished in two decades. This year's McNeese is not last year's McNeese, and a Nebraska/Troy matchup in the second round seems to bode well for the Commodores.
The Storyline Team: Nebraska Cornhuskers
2025-26 Nebraska is one of those stories that restores your faith in college athletics. The basketball program has played second fiddle to football for its entire history. In fact, with zero wins over eight appearances, the Cornhuskers enter March this year as the only power conference team that has yet to win an NCAA Tournament game. Now, the 'Huskers enter as a four seed after a magical season, one that took years and a lot of suffering for Fred Hoiberg to build. They've rewritten just about every record book around Nebraska basketball, and have an opportunity to change the perception of Cornhusker basketball. Perhaps the best part of the story is that they've done it with a group of veterans, most of whom were unheralded entering the college ranks. Rienk Mast came over from Netherlands and started his career at Bradley, now he's one of the most reliable bigs in the Big Ten. Pryce Sandfort came over from Iowa and is their most potent scorer with his three-point shooting ability. Jamarques Lawrence is a senior who boomeranged back to Nebraska, where he began his career prior to a pit stop at Rhode Island. And then there's the coach's son, Sam Hoiberg, a pesky defender and superb distributor. No matter what happens this March, this is the type of feel-good story we need in this era of college basketball. Amid all the NIL chaos and transfer portal shenanigans, sometimes there's still the scrappy underdog you can cheer on and for that, this Nebraska team should be celebrated.
The Cinderella Candidate: VCU Rams
It still feels like just yesterday Shaka Smart and the VCU Rams tore through the NCAA Tournament field in 2011, toppling the Goliath Kansas in the Elite Eight and making the program's first ever Final Four. A decade-and-half later, the program is far more established as a regular NCAA Tournament participant, but there's still some Cinderella feel around the Rams as they enter this Big Dance as an 11 seed. This team had their struggles in the non-conference but when you look closer, it feels a bit different. Of their four non-conference losses, three came to teams now playing in the NCAA Tournament and the lone one that didn't came to New Mexico by three points. The Rams picked things back up when Atlantic 10 play began, getting out to a 15-3 record and winning the conference tournament. In fact, the Rams have suffered just one single defeat since mid-January, and that was on the road to Saint Louis. That momentum is everything when it comes to March, and it's not reflected on the other side in their first round opponent. The 6-seed North Carolina Tar Heels would have been a team I kept my eye on to make a run, but they are without their best player in Caleb Wilson. The star freshman is everything for that offense and his season-ending injury in early March put a damper on the entire season. A surging VCU against a fading North Carolina? That's the perfect recipe for a classic 6-11 upset.
I'm Buying Stock: Houston Cougars
If you're betting on any team in the field, Houston is the right team to have stock in. Kelvin Sampson's program has become an absolute machine, and hasn't skipped a beat in the transition from the American Athletic to Big 12. They've now advanced to the second weekend five straight times, and the path sets up perfectly for them to reach a sixth this year. What sets apart last year's group - that played for a National Title - and this team as opposed to previous Sampson teams is what they can do offensively. For so long, Houston was a team that relied on one go-to scorer and surrounded them with elite defenders who fit their physical, relentless style of play. That identity is still at the core of this Cougars team, but they now have a bunch of weapons who can handle the offensive load. True freshman Kingston Flemings has become the big name as the likely lottery selection in this summer's NBA Draft, but don't discount the veterans, namely Emmanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan. Sharp is the hard-nosed scorer who can get to the basket, while Uzan may be the difference-maker. His shot hasn't quite been there for much of the season, but if he regain his stroke, this team becomes supremely dangerous. Add in Chris Cenac Jr. and Mason Miller as the complementary pieces, and I love the way this Cougar roster is built. They were my National Title pick a year ago, and I wouldn't be shocked if they find a way to finish the job this time around.
Picking the South
First Round
1 Florida Gators over 16 Lehigh Mountain Hawks -- Something tells me the reigning National Champions aren't going to lay an egg in the first round. Todd Golden's team cruises to an easy first round victory.
9 Iowa Hawkeyes over 8 Clemson Tigers -- Unsurprisingly, the 8/9 matchup is a true coin toss for me. I'll go with the Hawkeyes because they have the best player on the court in guard Bennett Stirtz.
5 Vanderbilt Commodores over 12 McNeese Cowboys -- This is not Will Wade's McNeese team who pulled an upset last season, and this is not your typical Vanderbilt team. The Commodores get their first NCAA Tournament win since 2012.
13 Troy Trojans over 4 Nebraska Cornhuskers -- To be frank, I would hate for this to be how Nebraska's season ends. But this is a strong Troy team as the 13-seed, playing in their second straight NCAA Tournament. The Campbell brothers could become the latest March sensations by leading the Trojans to a win.
11 VCU Rams over 6 North Carolina Tar Heels -- Without Caleb Wilson, I'm just not sure where the offense is going to come from for the Heels against a VCU team that is playing about as well as anybody entering the NCAA Tournament.
3 Illinois Fighting Illini over 14 Penn Quakers -- Ivy League teams are always dangerous this time of year, but Penn could be without their best player in T.J. Power, who missed practice with an illness. Even with him at 100 percent, the odds feel long against this Illinois team.
10 Texas A&M Aggies over 7 Saint Mary's Gaels -- Bucky McMillan's Aggies have faded a bit down the stretch, but this is a physically imposing team with an explosive offense. That's not an ideal matchup for this Saint Mary's plan of attack.
2 Houston Cougars over 15 Idaho Vandals -- Not since the first Kermit Davis era in the early 90's has Idaho played in an NCAA Tournament. This is going to be a short trip, as the Cougars roll on.
Second Round
1 Florida Gators over 9 Iowa Hawkeyes -- Even if Stirtz is able to create some magic for the Hawkeyes, they simply don't have the frontcourt to hang with the Gator trio of Chinyelu, Haugh, and Condon.
5 Vanderbilt Commodores over 13 Troy Trojans -- This could be a really fun second round matchup between two teams with high-octane offenses ready to make their mark in March. Vanderbilt is the more talented team, but the Trojans will still put up a fight.
3 Illinois Fighting Illini over 11 VCU Rams -- Everyone focuses on Keaton Wagler for Illinois, but the reality is that this is a very well-rounded team top-to-bottom. Wagler, veteran Kylan Boswell, and the Ivisic twins down low make all the difference.
2 Houston Cougars over 10 Texas A&M Aggies -- Fun little Southwest duel in the second round here. I have a feeling it will have the same result as the 2024 second round game, when the Cougars found a way to outlast the Aggies in overtime.
Sweet 16
1 Florida Gators over 5 Vanderbilt Commodores -- These two split the season series, with Florida winning in the regular season and the Commodores pulling the upset in the SEC Tournament. If the Gators can find their defense, which wasn't there in the last meeting when Vandy shot 55%, they should be able to prevail.
2 Houston Cougars over 3 Illinois Fighting Illini -- A real battle between two teams with opposing styles. Houston is going to still and try this into a grinding game, while the Illini are going to try and play fast. Kingston Flemings edges Wagler in a matchup of elite freshman guards.
Elite Eight
2 Houston Cougars over 1 Florida Gators -- A rematch of last year's National Championship in the Elite Eight feels fitting. I'd argue this Houston team is even better than the group last season, and the Gators just a hair worse. Without the same big shot-makers they had last season, Florida comes up short in the rematch.
South Region Champion: 2 Houston Cougars
It doesn't feel like Houston is receiving as much attention as normal heading into this NCAA Tournament. We've just come to expect great things from Kelvin Sampson and company, and this will be no different. I have them coming out of this region, and believe they have a very good shot to land right back in the National Championship Game once more.
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