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| Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt |
Upset: 2-3
Superdogs: 3-1
Locks: 3-3
(#3) Miami Hurricanes @ (#18) Florida State Seminoles
Line: Miami -4.5
O/U: 53.5
Miami - Florida State has long been one of the fiercest rivalries in college football, but rarely has it had such implications in recent times. Despite a loss to Virginia last week, Florida State is hoping to continue their turnaround from last season's 2-10 mark and challenge for an ACC Title. Miami may have even loftier goals - such as a National Title. A loss here will not necessarily run either of their chances, but victory would go a long way in furthering their ambitions as we hit the month of October.
It's been all about the rushing attack for Florida State early on in the season, as Gus Malzahn has engineered the nation's second best rushing offense to this point in the fall. The Seminoles are currently averaging over 336 yards per game on the ground, thanks to dual threat QB Tommy Castellanos and a deep backfield that includes Gavin Sawchuk, Ousmane Kromah, and Samuel Singleton Jr. It's so effective because it doesn't rely on just one piece - Malzahn is a magician at scheming up complex packages that get his guys into space. There's also the chance the Seminoles could be getting an important piece back to this backfield, as Roydell Williams has a chance to return this week after missing their last three games. He went down with injury in the opener against Alabama, but is the most experienced rusher on this roster. This Florida State rushing attack does set up an interesting battle with this Miami Hurricane defense. With coordinator Corey Hetherman, this side of the ball for Miami may be among the most improved units in the entire country. The front seven in particular sets the tone, with Rueben Bain Jr. the alpha in the room. Bain shouldn't be expected to contribute too much as a run defender, but his constant pressure as an edge rusher has given this Hurricane defense a real edge to it all season long. If the Florida State offensive line isn't up for the challenge and Miami can control the line as they have so far this season, you can imagine this team building an early lead and playing ball control the remainder of the game. We are going to need to see Castellanos throw the ball, which he hasn't necessarily needed to for much of the early season. This Miami defense is a whole different challenge than Alabama was - they're healthier, better coached, and relentless. This is going to need to be a vintage Gus coaching performance if Florida State is to put points on the board.
For the Miami offense, it's been all about balance over the course of the first five games of their season. Quarterback Carson Beck may not be Cam Ward, but he hasn't needed to be, instead providing the Hurricanes a competent, reliable signal-caller to run the show. He's benefitted from some really nice talent around him, with Mark Fletcher Jr. rumbling on the ground, while true freshman sensation Malachi Toney and transfer C.J. Daniels make things happen on the perimeter. What really sets Miami apart, however, is the offensive line. This is a peak Mario Cristobal offensive line, one loaded with future NFL talent, depth, and overwhelming ferocity. They have looked the part so far this fall, even against tough competition like Notre Dame and Florida, so they should not be surprised by this Florida State front. And, it's hard to know how good the Seminole defense really is, anyways. They played great football against Alabama and against mediocre competition over the next few weeks, but then allowed 440 yards and 46 points to Virginia last Friday. The Hurricanes aren't as explosive as an offense as the one on the other sideline, but I'm not sure they need to be. As long as Beck continues to take care of the ball and make the right decisions, this can be a very methodical and productive group. Their ability to control the trenches puts them at an immediate advantage over just about everyone on their schedule.
Heading into Doak Campbell Stadium will of course be a significant challenge for this Miami team, but one they should be prepared for. This team has the pieces to take the Seminole crowd out of the game early on, and then play a ball control game the rest of the way with the way they control the lines of scrimmage. As long as Cristobal doesn't make any wacky late-game decisions, an unfortunate tendency of his, I like Miami's chances to keep their perfect record intact.
The Pick: Miami, 27 Florida State, 20
(#16) Vanderbilt Commodores @ (#10) Alabama Crimson Tide
Line: Alabama -10.5
O/U: 56.5
In a way, a game like Vanderbilt - Alabama is what makes college football so beautiful. On one side, is a team that has dominated the sport for nearly two decades now, one of the sport's true heavyweights, playing at home. On the other is a program that has been a regular cellar dweller in an SEC with far greater powers than them, led by a sixth-year QB who started at JUCO. Yet, Vanderbilt has a chance all the same to make quite the statement this weekend and walk into Tuscaloosa and shock the mighty Crimson Tide.
After a rough opener against Florida State, Alabama and quarterback Ty Simpson have looked the part over this last month. The offense has been moving the ball and putting up points, and Simpson looks in complete control, fresh off a Georgia win in which he tallied 276 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Alabama has been doing all that even with a ground game that seems to still be getting rolling, one that was held to just about three yards per carry last week. Fortunately, Jam Miller is back and getting closer to 100 percent, providing the Tide the hope that they can find some offensive balance moving forward. If they can force defenses to respect Miller and company, it gives this aerial attack even more opportunities down the field, where Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard can really create some damage. The Tide will benefit from the obvious fact Vanderbilt's defense is not Georgia's - the Commodores have been playing good football on this side of the ball, but the talent is worlds different. Vanderbilt is going to hope to play their gritty style of football, with Clark Lea drawing up some complex looks in an effort to freeze Simpson. It could work, as Lea is a great defensive mind and the Commodores do have some pieces, namely safety C.J. Heard and edge rusher Miles Capers, but doing so for an entire sixty minutes is a lofty challenge. You do wonder if Alabama may start slow, and a big play from Williams or any of the other many weapons on this roster ends up blowing the game wide open.
There may not be a more exciting player in college football today than Diego Pavia. Pavia, who began his career at a junior college before transferring to New Mexico State and then following coach Jerry Kill to Vanderbilt, is currently the team's top passer and rusher. And, it's not just the stat sheet that makes Pavia so interesting - he plays with an energy and a swagger that just doesn't come through the doors very often at a place like Vandy. You better believe he is 100 percent confident that he can go into Tuscaloosa and beat this Alabama team. But, he does need help. Even the greatest quarterbacks need support, and Vanderbilt's supporting cast needs to show up. Tight end Eli Stowers is a difference-maker at the position and a likely John Mackey Award frontrunner. He's a matchup nightmare with his blend of size and athleticism, and will give Alabama DC Kane Wommack plenty of problems. But, who else does Vanderbilt have at receiver that can make a big play? At running back, Sedrick Alexander is the established veteran, one who has had an impressive start to the year. But, I'm more curious about a guy like Makhilyn Young, a guy who can break open games with his explosiveness. Young's big runs against Virginia Tech and Georgia State broke those games open, but he was held completely in check the last time the Commodores faced an SEC defense. This is an offense that may need to engineer some offense, even with Pavia making as much happen as possible. The Tide defense has looked very good in recent weeks, causing turnovers and creating difficult situations for opposing offenses. Even better for them, they seem to be getting healthier at the right spots deeper into the season, a real concern for the rest of the SEC.
Could we see a Johnny Manziel-like during his Heisman season against Alabama from Diego Pavia? You can always imagine, but that was a great Texas A&M team, too. Vanderbilt has been a fun story and I do think they will end up in 8-9 win territory, but going into Tuscaloosa and beating an Alabama team that's playing such strong football at the moment? I just don't see it happening this time around.
The Pick: Alabama, 38 Vanderbilt, 21
Other Picks
(#7) Texas Longhorns @ Florida Gators -- This is the first significant test for Texas since their Ohio State loss, while Florida is battle-tested amidst a brutal stretch of games. Look for a low-scoring, defense affair, but the Longhorns have enough weapons to outlast the Gators, even on the road.
The Pick: Texas, 28 Florida, 17
Wisconsin Badgers @ (#20) Michigan Wolverines -- It's been a brutal first month of the season for Wisconsin, and going on the road to Michigan doesn't seem like the moment it all turns around. The Wolverines establish the early lead and grind down the Badgers to victory.
The Pick: Michigan, 23 Wisconsin, 13
Boise State Broncos @ (#21) Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- A fascinating non-conference battle in South Bend in the middle of the day, which essentially acts as a College Football Playoff elimination game. With the way Notre Dame is moving the ball offensively, even if their defense struggles, they should be able to come out victorious.
The Pick: Notre Dame, 35 Boise State, 21
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Ohio State Buckeyes -- There's admittedly bias involved in this pick, but I don't think this is going to be some blowout. The Gopher offense looked the part in the win over Rutgers last week, but you do wonder if their corners, the weakest part of the defense, can survive Jeremiah Smith and company.
The Pick: Ohio State, 40 Minnesota, 28
Upset: (#11) Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Houston Cougars -- The big-time money Texas Tech has spent over the offseason has worked out to this point, but this is a trap game. The Cougars are a legitimately good football team and still riding the high from the Utah win, I see the Red Raiders getting caught here.
The Pick: Houston, 30 Texas Tech, 27
Superdog (covers > 21 point spread): Charlotte 49ers (+29.5) @ South Florida Bulls -- USF has been a great story, but this is a huge line for a Charlotte team that hasn't been blow out by this total yet this fall. The Niners may not pull an upset, but I think they give the Bulls a game deep into the second half on a Friday night.
The Pick: South Florida, 38 Charlotte, 13
Lock of the Week: Northwestern Wildcats (-10) vs. UL-Monroe Warhawks -- I'm surprised at this line, but UL-Monroe is a tougher Group of Five foe than most may realize. Even so, Northwestern should be able to come away victorious on the shores of Lake Michigan by riding their usually stingy defense.
The Pick: Northwestern, 24 UL-Monroe, 7
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